MLB: What to watch on September 14, 2026

• 14 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 3:40p

Summary

A legitimate ace on the mound and a playoff race hanging in the balance make this the best watch of the day. Gavin Williams has quietly turned into a Cy Young dark horse this year, not named an All-Star but the type of pitcher who "wouldn't be surprising whatsoever" to get Cy Young votes come November, and he passed 200 strikeouts on August 20th. His 12.71 pNERD is elite - a 67 xFIP-, mid-90s velocity, and a filthy strikeout rate all point to a pitcher who can miss bats and rack up value in a hurry. Newcomb is a serviceable complement with an 89-good xFIP- but nothing special, and his fringe stuff and lack of consistency mean this game leans heavily on Williams' shoulders. The stakes matter too: the AL Central rivals are jockeying for postseason positioning, with Cleveland fighting to hang onto its wild-card grip while Chicago sits atop the division. Both offenses carry youth and low payrolls that boost their tNERD marks, though Cleveland's below-average barrel rate is a real soft spot. At 16.73, this gNERD sits well above today's 11.03 average and near the historical 95th percentile - genuinely one of the better games on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Chicago White Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Sean Newcomb, Chicago White Sox

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 3:40p

Summary

Skubal on the mound is reason enough to tune in—the reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner has been a revelation since arriving from Detroit, and this is a rematch of the beatdown he put on Cincinnati just last week. In that September 9 start, he worked into the eighth inning against these same Reds, allowing just two runs on four hits with five strikeouts across 7 1/3 innings. His pNERD of 11.91 is comfortably above today's slate average, driven by elite whiff and strike rates and a fastball that still sits at 96.8 mph. Across his run with LA, Skubal is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 43 innings, and his xFIP- suggests he's actually pitching even better than that shiny ERA implies.

Lodolo, by contrast, is the exact opposite story — a 2.03 pNERD reflecting a rough season where his last three starts have been even shakier at a 5.52 ERA, with command issues (38 walks) fueling the mismatch. The Reds counter with some thump — De La Cruz has been an absolute terror at the plate, crushing a 444-foot home run off Skubal on September 9 — but the Dodgers own a clear tNERD edge (8.02 to 4.75), buoyed by strong batting and bullpen numbers. At 13.35, this game's gNERD lands solidly above the historical median and near today's average, making it a reasonably watchable pick, mostly on the strength of watching an ace work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Cincinnati Reds

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

Not exactly a marquee pitching duel on paper, but the backstory carries this one: Corbin Burnes making just his second start back from Tommy John surgery, still on a strict pitch count, against a Marlins team clinging to fading wild-card hopes. Sandy Alcantara has been the workhorse of the National League — he leads the majors with 21 quality starts and 200 innings pitched, the first time he's hit that plateau since his 2022 Cy Young season — but he's been scuffling lately, allowing 11 earned runs over just 10.1 innings across his last two September starts. Burnes, meanwhile, looked sharp in his return, tossing three scoreless innings on 57 pitches against Kansas City, though his cutter velocity is still a tick down from last year. Since Burnes has no track record yet this season, his pNERD sits at zero, dragging the pitching score down despite Alcantara's plus fastball velocity carrying his end. The Marlins' tNERD (8.97) stands out thanks to strong baserunning, a young inexpensive roster, and some positive regression-to-come luck, while Arizona's solid defense keeps its offer respectable. Overall gNERD of 12.38 sits comfortably above the historical and today's averages — watchable, if only to see how far Burnes can stretch it.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Miami Marlins

Arizona Diamondbacks

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

Chicago's offense is legit right now, and this game carries real stakes with October seeding on the line, but both starters are walking a tightrope that could turn this into a slugfest rather than a pitchers' duel. The Cubs, boasting the best tNERD score in today's slate (10.53, driven by an elite batting-runs mark and standout fielding), host a Braves club that's cooled off, dropping five of its last ten and losing four straight to Philadelphia before salvaging one game against Tampa Bay. Reynaldo López is making just his second start back from a knee injury that sidelined him for weeks, and his return outing wasn't pretty — he just surrendered six runs across 4 2/3 innings during his return from a knee injury. David Peterson owns the better pNERD here (5.23 vs. López's 3.15), helped by strong luck-based regression upside, but his control has been shaky too — he's issued 59 walks in 131.1 innings, with three or more walks in three of his last four starts. With home field for October at stake and Pete Crow-Armstrong's 41 homers looming, expect fireworks more than finesse — this one's watchable for the stakes and the lineups, even if the pitching doesn't inspire much confidence, landing solidly above the historic gNERD median.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Atlanta Braves

Chicago Cubs

Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

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Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

I have enough info to write the summary now.

A middling watchability game with a decent pitching matchup buried in a lopsided race for irrelevance. Detroit (70-79) and Toronto (75-75) aren't playing for much except pride and Wild Card scraps, but both starters bring real swing-and-miss stuff to the mound. Troy Melton has been a steady strike-thrower for Detroit, and while his season ERA looks shiny, some recent reports note he's "been hit hard lately" — worth watching whether his velocity (96.2 mph) and youth (age 25) can bail him out. José Soriano, meanwhile, gives Toronto the better peripheral profile, with a 91 xFIP- and 96.7 mph heat backing up his 6.90 pNERD. Both bullpens and lineups are fairly middling — Toronto's offense actually rates as one of the weaker units in this sample by barrel rate, though elite outfield defense (1.57 z-score) helps offset that, and some positive team luck suggests they may cool off after a hot recent stretch. Riley Greene keeps anchoring Detroit's lineup and Toronto counters with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a resurgent Kazuma Okamoto. Overall, this sits almost exactly at the historical median gNERD (10.81) — solidly average, elevated mostly by the pitching matchup rather than the offenses.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

José Soriano, Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins, 4:40p

Summary

The Yankees are playoff-bound and grinding, the Twins are fading into irrelevance, and that gap shows up everywhere except maybe the pitching matchup, which is closer to a coin flip than the records suggest. New York's 7.69 tNERD comes mostly from an excellent barrel rate and a deep, above-average bullpen, while Minnesota's anemic 3.18 reflects shaky defense and baserunning that just can't be papered over by Brooks Lee's breakout season. Byron Buxton's day-to-day hip issue only thins out an already fading Twins lineup. On the mound, Will Warren (4.90 pNERD) has quietly solid peripherals backing his 10-6 mark, and while Dean Kremer's surface numbers are rougher, his xFIP- suggests he's been unlucky and due for better results than his rocky ERA implies. Neither arm brings big strikeout stuff, so don't expect a strikeout clinic. At a 10.21 gNERD, this sits almost exactly at the historical median and slightly below today's average slate, so it's a perfectly reasonable game if the Yankees' pursuit of the AL East title interests you, but there are better-watch options on the board today.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Minnesota Twins

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

A rebuilding-year matchup that's mostly about watching two teams' pitching apprentices try to figure things out in real time. Jonah Tong is the storyline here: the Mets' talented but erratic righty is back in the rotation after being optioned down in June, and Triple-A time seems to have helped—he'd turned into a different pitcher over his last few weeks in Syracuse, posting a 0.84 ERA with 23 strikeouts over his final four starts there. His first look back in the majors against Miami went reasonably well, as he picked up his second win of the year by allowing four runs over five innings, with the damage concentrated in one bad frame. Still, his big-league track record is rough enough that our system has no reliable pNERD read on him at all—hence the flat 0.00. Brandon Young's peripherals (xFIP- of 109, modest strikeout stuff) don't inspire much confidence either, landing him a pNERD of 3.56, so nobody should expect a pitcher's duel. The appeal instead comes from the offenses and bullpens: both Baltimore and New York post well-above-average barrel rates and solid bullpen runs, giving their tNERDs (5.23 and 5.79) a lift toward league-average watchability, with a 9.79 gNERD sitting a bit below today's average slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Mets

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Two teams playing out the string, but there's a fun wrinkle: this is a rematch just six days after San Francisco swept St. Louis in Oracle Park, and Roupp and Mathews already dueled once in that set, with Roupp taking a two-hit shutout effort. That head-to-head history is about the most compelling thing on offer here, because the gNERD score of 8.68 sits below the historical average (10.81) and well under today's slate average (11.03). Roupp (4.19 pNERD) has quietly been excellent lately — allowing one earned run over 11 innings with six strikeouts in his last two September starts — and his low walk/contact profile keeps the Giants competitive even with a last-place record. Mathews (3.51 pNERD) is a 25-year-old rookie still finding his footing, 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA and 28 strikeouts across 30.2 innings in six major league starts, so there's some novelty in watching him develop, but his innings limit means the questionable Cardinals bullpen could get exposed early. St. Louis's tNERD edge comes almost entirely from a young, cheap roster rather than actual offensive punch — both lineups grade as below-average run producers, which tracks with the modest total the books have set. Watchable if you like defensive baseball and rematches; skip it if you need fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

St. Louis Cardinals

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals

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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Padres in the playoff hunt but this is the wrong game to catch it in: a hot San Diego club dropping into a broken Colorado team, at altitude, with two shaky starters. San Diego arrives at 81-68 having just swept the San Francisco Giants and won seven games in a row, going 8-1 in their last nine. Colorado has nothing to play for, sitting at 55-93, already eliminated and staring down a fourth consecutive 100-loss-caliber season. The tNERD gap says it all—Padres at 10.32 thanks largely to an elite bullpen and strong fielding, versus a Rockies club near replacement level offensively and defensively (1.04). On the mound, Casey Mize gets a modest bump (4.54 pNERD) for solid control, though his adjustment to San Diego hasn't gone smoothly—since the trade he's allowed nine home runs in 32.2 innings with a 6.34 ERA. Sugano, at 36 and pitching at altitude, rates as one of the weaker arms on the board today (0.66 pNERD), having allowed 152 hits and 84 earned runs over 137.2 innings this season. With a gNERD of 8.28—below both the historical and today's averages—this is a lopsided mismatch best treated as background noise unless you just want to watch Coors Field batting practice.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies

Casey Mize, San Diego Padres

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

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Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

A rookie on the rise meets a second-half revelation, even if the standings say this game shouldn't matter. Kade Anderson, Seattle's 22-year-old third overall pick, is still finding his footing — a 22-year-old rookie left-hander, the third overall pick of the 2025 draft, debuted August 22 with a 4.29 ERA over four starts, and the underlying numbers are thinner: 16 strikeouts against eight walks in 21 innings, a 1.381 WHIP, a 5.20 FIP — but his last start was his best, six innings and one earned run at Texas for his first big-league win. His pNERD of 5.43 leans heavily on his youth rather than dominant stuff yet. The real draw is Reid Detmers, who's been the best story in Anaheim's lost season: the Angels give the ball to left-hander Reid Detmers, the story of their second half, with a 3.32 ERA... since the All-Star break he has 10 starts with a 1.37 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings, and his last outing was six innings of one-hit, scoreless ball at Fenway Park. His 7.69 pNERD and stingy xFIP- back that up. Beyond the pitching, this is a 56-93 Angels team playing out the string against a fading Seattle wild-card hopeful, and both team tNERDs sit near the bottom of the scale — the gNERD of 8.12 is modest, so watch for the arms, not the standings race.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Los Angeles Angels

Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

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  MLB: What to watch on September 13, 2026