MLB: What to watch on September 20, 2026

• 20 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles, 4:20p

Summary

Here's the summary:

This one's near the top of the day's slate for a reason: Jacob Misiorowski is must-watch theater, and Baltimore's depleted lineup gives him plenty of room to work. Misiorowski, this year's presumptive NL Cy Young frontrunner, has a 1.89 ERA with a 2.08 xERA and a 2.19 FIP over 166.1 innings, averaging 100.5 mph with his fastball and striking out 243 batters. What makes the 24-year-old's season remarkable isn't just velocity — he's issued just 42 walks for a 6.6% BB%, a stunning turnaround for a guy who once walked hitters at a double-digit clip in the minors. His 15.00 pNERD is essentially max-scale, built on elite strikeout stuff, a hellacious xFIP-, and youth. Brandon Young, by contrast, offers a modest 3.40 pNERD and a fringe-average four-seamer. The Orioles are limping toward the finish line — fighting for playoff survival at 75-80 with a -28 run differential, without Jackson Holliday, Luis Robert Jr., Tyler O'Neill, and Ryan Mountcastle all injured simultaneously. Milwaukee's tNERD (9.85) reflects a genuinely fun, young, athletic roster with plus baserunning and bullpen depth. This gNERD of 16.96 sits well above today's average and near the top of the historical distribution — tune in for the Miz, stay for the mismatch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

Milwaukee Brewers

Baltimore Orioles

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

Playoff-race backdrop meets a season-finale-ish rubber match that's got more juice than the standings might suggest. The Padres (85-69) are locked in behind a deep, well-drummed bullpen and a fielding unit that's quietly been excellent, while the Marlins, playing out the string at 76-78, still bring real teeth against right-handed pitching this month. The Marlins quietly slot inside the Top-10 in average, wOBA, and SLG against righties this month, which matters because Fernando Tatis Jr. is crushing Alcantara's pitch mix, managing an impressive .333 ISO with a 20.7% barrel rate in their recent history — a genuine swing-through storyline worth tracking. Alcantara still pumps mid-to-upper-90s heat and posts the better pNERD of the two arms, though Buehler owns a middling 4.16 xFIP over the past 30 days, so neither is exactly locked in. San Diego's tNERD (10.93) ranks near the top of today's slate, boosted by a strong bullpen and top-tier broadcast crew, and the Padres bring real quality to Petco. The overall gNERD of 14.91 sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — a solidly watchable one, buoyed more by team quality and a live individual matchup than by big pitching numbers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Miami Marlins

San Diego Padres

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

A near-desperate playoff push meets a 38-year-old ace looking every bit his Cy Young self — this one's got juice. Texas clings to a one-game lead over Houston in the AL West with a week left, and manager Skip Schumaker is leaning on deGrom to eat innings after the Rangers had to turn to their bullpen more often than they'd like in the first two games of the series, with Cal Quantrill exiting Saturday's game with lat tightness. DeGrom himself is a story worth watching regardless of stakes — he signed with Texas in 2023 and was named an All-Star again in 2025, and his pNERD of 11.40 (fueled by a filthy xFIP- of 72 and elite swinging-strike rate) ranks well above today's 5.89 average. Toronto's Spencer Miles, just 25, is quietly excellent too, posting a strong 8.52 pNERD off a stingy xFIP-. The Blue Jays are essentially playing out the string, three games out of the wild card, and their offense reflects it — bottom-of-the-barrel exit velocity drags their tNERD down to 3.53. Still, with a 14.50 gNERD comfortably above the 10.81 historical average, this is a legitimately watchable pitching matchup wrapped around real standings drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Texas Rangers

Spencer Miles, Toronto Blue Jays

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

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Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians, 10:40a

Summary

Cleveland's playing out the string at home, but Gavin Williams is making sure the last home date has some juice. This is a lopsided pitching matchup dressed up as a series finale, and the gNERD score of 14.02 — comfortably above both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate (11.43) — reflects that Williams alone is doing a lot of heavy lifting. He's been Cleveland's steadiest starter all year, carrying a 13-8 record with a 3.78 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and 235 strikeouts across 174 innings, with a strikeout rate of 12.16 per nine, and his 12.59 pNERD (elite xFIP- of 68) is near the top of today's pitcher pool. Across the mound, Jack Perkins owns a 6.20 pNERD that's more about velocity (95.7 mph) than results — he's been roughed up plenty this year. On the team side, Cleveland's 6.86 tNERD beats Oakland's 2.38 by a wide margin, aided by youth, payroll thrift, and a strong bullpen led by closer Cade Smith. The Athletics carry eight position players and pitchers on the 60-Day IL, including Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jacob Wilson, which explains why this Oakland lineup looks so thin. Watch for the strikeouts, not the drama.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Athletics

Cleveland Guardians

Jack Perkins, Athletics

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets, 10:10a

Summary

Both teams are out of playoff contention, but there's a genuine reason to watch: Cristopher Sánchez owns the highest pitcher NERD score in this matchup by a mile, and he's trying to snap out of a rare funk that followed one of the most absurd pitching feats in recent Phillies history. Earlier this season Sánchez surpassed Hall of Famer Grover Cleveland Alexander for the longest scoreless-innings streak by any Phillies pitcher since 1893, eventually stretching it to a left-handed-pitcher MLB record before it snapped. Lately, though, he's been human — Sanchez has given up 11 runs in his last 11.1 innings, so this start is as much about a bounce-back as anything, and his elite xFIP- and whiff numbers suggest regression toward his usual dominance is likely. Opposite him is Mets rookie Jonah Tong, who has a 3.43 ERA in five appearances split between the rotation and bullpen — solid results but wobblier peripherals, though his youth and swing-and-miss stuff keep him interesting. The 12.68 gNERD sits comfortably above the historical average and is right around today's slate's mean, making this a decent-not-spectacular midday watch, propped up almost entirely by Sánchez's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds, 10:40a

Summary

Chicago could clinch a playoff spot with a win today combined with a loss by Arizona, so there's actual stakes here even if the standings gap looks lopsided. That alone makes this more watchable than the raw numbers suggest, and the numbers aren't bad either — a 12.10 gNERD sits solidly above the historical median and roughly in line with today's slate average.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs have split the first two games of the series, and Chicago could clinch a playoff spot with a win combined with a loss by Arizona. The Cubs' 10.40 tNERD is elite — built on strong batting and fielding runs — while Cincinnati checks in with a modest 4.23. Lowder has struggled down the stretch, allowing 16 earned runs in 12.1 innings over his last three September starts, and his 3.99 pNERD (dragged down by a rough xFIP-) reflects that fade. Peterson isn't dazzling either, but he's the "solid" arm here, and his current line's inflated by favorable luck that should regress toward better results, not worse. Neither pitcher screams must-watch on stuff alone, but with playoff magic numbers on the line and the majors' most prolific home run team in town, this one has juice beyond the spreadsheet.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Cincinnati Reds

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

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New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 1:10p

Summary

A pennant-race game with a wildly lopsided pitching matchup, but the Diamondbacks' desperation makes it watchable anyway. Arizona is in must-win territory, badly needing a win to keep its postseason hopes alive, while the Yankees roll in comfortably positioned in the AL East. The real story is Corbin Burnes, who's making just his third appearance this season for the Diamondbacks — his workload is so limited (7.2 innings, six strikeouts) that the model can't even generate a pNERD score for him, hence the goose egg. Will Warren, by contrast, has been steady down the stretch and owns the far more usable pNERD of 4.97, boosted mainly by a strong xFIP-. On the team side, the Yankees' 7.39 tNERD outpaces Arizona's 5.43, driven by a scorching barrel rate, though Arizona counters with plus baserunning and fielding. At 11.39, this gNERD sits a shade above the historical average and roughly average for today's slate — not a must-watch, but the stakes for Arizona and Burnes' rustiness add some intrigue.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

New York Yankees

Arizona Diamondbacks

Will Warren, New York Yankees

Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks

No detailed stats available

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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, 10:40a

Summary

Boston needs this one more than Tampa Bay does, and on paper it shows: the Rays already punched their playoff ticket, becoming the first team to clinch a berth this year on Junior Caminero's walk-off blast against Houston, while the Red Sox are still scrapping to hang on to a postseason spot. Griffin Jax is the reason to tune in on the mound — his 7.96 pNERD (well above the 5.89 average for today's slate) is built on a stingy 83 xFIP- and a swinging-strike rate that ranks near the league's best, backing up a season that's made him a legitimate weapon after his conversion from Twins reliever to Rays starter. Patrick Sandoval, by contrast, is walking into this one on a cold streak, having gone six innings just once in his last six starts and allowed four earned runs in two of his last two outings — his 3.15 pNERD reflects that shakiness, particularly a slow pace and middling strike rate. Tampa's offense carries real thump too, with Boston's bullpen its only saving grace on that side. At 11.29, the gNERD sits just above the historical average, but the real appeal here is Jax's dominance against a desperate opponent that badly needs length from Sandoval and isn't likely to get it.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Tampa Bay Rays

Patrick Sandoval, Boston Red Sox

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

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Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox, 11:10a

Summary

Detroit and Chicago close out their four-game set with the White Sox clinging to a wild-card spot and sitting a game back of Cleveland in the AL Central, so there's actual stakes attached to this one beyond the NERD math. Troy Melton (6.36 pNERD) brings mid-90s heat and a quick pace, and while he's faded late this season after a summer that saw him post a sub-2.00 ERA, going 5.81 ERA over his last five outings, he's owned this particular opponent, having put up a 1.56 ERA and 3.86 FIP over 17⅓ frames against the White Sox this year. Davis Martin (4.35 pNERD) is the less flashy arm but is finding form after missing time with a finger blister, allowing one earned run or less in three of his last four starts since returning. Chicago's tNERD (8.05) is buoyed by a young, cheap roster that's outplaying its payroll, while Detroit's lineup and bullpen numbers drag their tNERD down to 3.65. The 11.20 gNERD lands right around the historical average — nothing spectacular, but a competent pitchers' duel with playoff-race juice attached.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Detroit Tigers

Chicago White Sox

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals, 11:15a

Summary

This is a season-finale-adjacent matchup between two teams playing out the string, and the pitching matchup is the definition of "watch at your own risk." Jake Irvin has been dreadful since returning from a shoulder strain that shelved him for two months—going 0-5 with a 5.84 ERA in nine games since late July, and last time out he followed an opener for the first time in his career, allowing three runs on two hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Angels. His NERD components confirm the shakiness—a below-average xFIP- drags his pNERD down to 3.42, though a positive luck score suggests things could look worse than they are. Quinn Mathews, by contrast, is a rookie finding his footing—making his eighth major league start, he's gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA over his last four outings, backing a slightly-better-than-average pNERD of 4.92. Team-wise, Washington's tNERD (8.36) is buoyed by excellent baserunning and a young, cheap roster, while St. Louis's 5.62 gets a similar demographic boost but is hurt by a punchless offense. The 11.16 gNERD sits almost exactly at today's average—unremarkable, but not unwatchable if you like rookies auditioning against fading veterans.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Washington Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals

Jake Irvin, Washington Nationals

Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals

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San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 1:10p

Summary

A lopsided divisional finale between a Dodgers team humming toward the postseason and a Giants club just playing out the string, saved from complete irrelevance by a rookie's return to the rotation and Mookie Betts hunting home runs. The Dodgers have been nearly unbeatable at home lately, winning 12 of their last 14 home games to improve to 95-60, while the Giants have lost six of their last eight and sit at 64-91, so don't expect much drama in the standings. The pitching matchup is a mystery on both sides: Los Angeles has yet to name a starting pitcher, while Matt Wilkinson gets an unusual assignment — he'll draw the start in the series finale after the Giants elected to expand their rotation to six men this week, and the rookie left-hander made a six-inning start as recently as Aug. 29. He's also been homer-prone against right-handers, which is a problem against a Dodgers lineup where Teoscar Hernández is scalding hot. Team NERD tilts heavily toward LA (8.65 to 3.61), and with no pitcher data available, this is really a "watch the Dodgers offense" game rather than a pitching duel — gNERD of 11.13 is solidly average, worth a look if the Dodgers lineup are your priority.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Matt Wilkinson, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 10:35a

Summary

Michael Wacha's solid new All-Star campaign is genuinely worth a look, but this game as a whole is a fairly middling watch by the numbers, sitting a bit below average on both the historic and today's gNERD scales at 9.87. Wacha, a fourteen-year veteran making his first All-Star team since 2015, brings a workhorse profile of 188.2 innings and a nasty changeup that's held hitters to a .220 xwOBA this year — his pNERD of 4.28 reflects real, if unspectacular, weapons in his arsenal. Pittsburgh counters with Lake Bachar in what's essentially a bullpen game, part of a pattern the Pirates have leaned on since losing Mitch Keller for the year; his 3.75 pNERD is driven by a solid whiff rate but shaky command. The Pirates' 7.43 tNERD, boosted by strong baserunning and a surprisingly effective bullpen, gives them the edge over Kansas City, whose bullpen — missing Ragans, Estevez, Mears, Seabold, and Kimbrel all in one day — grades out as one of the worst components on either side. Cruz and Reynolds provide some thump if you stick around.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Kansas City Royals (2.22)

Kansas City Royals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

Lake Bachar, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros, 11:10a

Summary

I have solid info to work with. Let me write the summary.

Braves at 91-64 have already clinched significant ground while the Astros, sitting one game back in a suddenly tight AL West race at 77-78, are fighting to salvage their season, which gives this getaway-day matchup real playoff-race stakes even if the raw NERD math is middling. Hunter Brown brings the more interesting arm here—96 mph heat, a tidy xFIP-, and a pNERD of 5.23 that's comfortably above average for today's slate—while veteran Martín Pérez, sitting well below his usual velocity at 35, is more soft-tosser than strikeout artist, though his molasses-slow pace at least buys hitters extra thinking time. Houston's bullpen has had to lean harder on late innings with Robert Suárez out for the year on the 60-day IL, even as closer Raisel Iglesias has quietly racked up 34 saves. Atlanta's tNERD (5.33) outpaces Houston's (2.62), largely on the strength of a bullpen that's been quietly effective and a barrel rate that suggests real thump, while the Astros' baserunning has been a genuine liability. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 7.97—below the historical average and near the bottom of today's games—so this one's worth watching more for the standings than the stuff.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Houston Astros

Martín Pérez, Atlanta Braves

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

A rookie fireballer's second big-league test against a Rockies club that's spent all September playing out the string. Kade Anderson, Seattle's third-overall pick just last year, gets his second career start after a solid MLB debut where he nearly lasted six innings but had his day ended by back-to-back solo homers, finishing with three runs, five hits and two walks allowed with five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings. The 22-year-old, who was the highest draft selection by the Mariners since catcher Mike Zunino in 2012, comes with a hefty 8.30 pNERD, buoyed almost entirely by his extreme youth and a favorable early-career luck bump — worth watching if you like scouting the next big thing, even if the FIP-driven fundamentals are still just modestly above average. Across the mound, Tomoyuki Sugano is running a rough 0.68 pNERD, with strikeout and command numbers both south of average, so don't expect fireworks from Colorado's side.

The Rockies remain one of baseball's weakest offenses and defenses — bottom-of-the-barrel Batting Runs and Fielding Runs — while Seattle's own glovework has been similarly dreadful this year, per the tNERD components. Both teams get a "positive luck" bump too, meaning each has actually underperformed its skill markers lately, so regression optimists can dream. With a gNERD of 6.66, well below the historic average of 10.81 and today's slate average of 11.43, this game leans toward background viewing — worth a glance for Anderson's development, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Seattle Mariners

Colorado Rockies

Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

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Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

Kremer for the Twins meets Ryan Johnson for the Angels in the finale of a four-game set that has already delivered its share of weirdness, but the underlying scores suggest fans should treat this as background noise rather than appointment viewing. The Twins own baseball's worst last-place club by the numbers, and this Angels team isn't much better off—both squads carry ugly fielding and baserunning marks, with Los Angeles's offense also cratering to the bottom of the league. The Angels won the opener, lost the next game 3-0, then beat the Twins 6-5 in 11 innings, part of a stretch that has them at 60-95, in last place in the AL West. On the mound, Johnson enters at 5-8 with a 4.88 ERA, but has worked exactly six innings in each of his last three starts, and yes, he's still doing that unique warm-up routine that includes handstands in the bullpen. Kremer, mixing up his pitches in a new home after leaving Baltimore, carries a modest pNERD boost mostly from pure luck—his xFIP suggests he's been fortunate, not dominant. Both team NERDs sit near the bottom of today's slate, and the gNERD of 5.66 lands well below the historical average, so this one's mostly for Twins or Angels die-hards.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Minnesota Twins

Los Angeles Angels

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

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