MLB: What to watch on September 21, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9 | 3:40p | Washington Nationals | 8.4 | Detroit Tigers | 3.5 | DJ Herz | No data | River Ryan | No data |
| 8.9 | 3:35p | Toronto Blue Jays | 3.5 | Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | Trey Yesavage | 4.9 | Shane Baz | 3.7 |
| 7.8 | 6:45p | Minnesota Twins | 3.1 | San Francisco Giants | 3.4 | Zebby Matthews | 6.2 | Blade Tidwell | 2.8 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p
Summary
Two pitchers, two Tommy John surgeries, two comeback stories — this game is basically a science experiment in rust, and that's exactly why it's worth a look. DJ Herz makes his first big-league start since September 2024, having missed two years recovering from Tommy John surgery, with a June setback further slowing things down. Opposite him, River Ryan makes his Detroit debut after being traded from the Dodgers to the Tigers, along with two other players, in exchange for Tarik Skubal, and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2024 himself. Neither arm has meaningful workload data this year — Herz reached only 65 pitches in his last Triple-A outing, putting roughly four innings as a realistic ceiling — so both pNERD scores sit at zero simply because there's nothing to measure yet, not because they're bad. The real juice here is on the offensive side: Washington's tNERD of 8.37 is buoyed by strong baserunning and barrel rates, though a shaky bullpen drags it back down. Detroit's tNERD is more middling. With two teams that have already checked out of the playoff race, today's 10.91 gNERD ranks solidly above the day's 9.18 average — worth watching mostly for the novelty, not the stakes.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)
Washington Nationals
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 23.7 | 8.8% | 15.2 | -10.6 | -33.5 | $114.5M | 27.1 | -39.0 | 2.00 | 2.20 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.62 | 1.23 | 2.49 | -0.46 | -2.24 | -1.01 | -1.71 | -1.88 | -0.75 | -0.40 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.62 | 1.23 | 2.49 | -0.46 | -2.24 | 1.01 | 1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 8.37 |
Detroit Tigers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 7.9 | 8.2% | -6.2 | -15.0 | 15.6 | $239.2M | 29.6 | 5.0 | 2.74 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.23 | 0.59 | -1.08 | -0.65 | -0.51 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.25 | 0.69 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.23 | 0.59 | -1.08 | -0.65 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 3.45 |
DJ Herz, Washington Nationals
No detailed stats available
River Ryan, Detroit Tigers
No detailed stats available
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p
Summary
Both these clubs are playing out the string, but there's a genuine reason to tune in: Trey Yesavage is back. Yesavage starts for Toronto in his first outing since left knee surgery, and is expected to throw about three innings before handing off to the bullpen, so the real drama may be whether Toronto's bullpen can protect a shaky first act. When healthy, Yesavage has been legitimately electric — he's quietly turned into one of the more intriguing arms in Toronto's rotation, sitting 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 91 strikeouts across 93.2 innings — and his youth (22) and strikeout stuff drive a solid 4.90 pNERD. Across the mound, Shane Baz has had a rough go: a 6-15 record, a 4.11 ERA, and a 1.35 WHIP — numbers that explain why Baltimore has had trouble stringing together quality starts all September. Toronto's offense is oddly punchless (bottom-of-the-barrel barrel rate drags their tNERD to 3.53) while Baltimore's 5.54 tNERD gets a boost from thump and bullpen work. At 8.86, this gNERD sits a shade below today's 9.18 average — watchable mostly for the Yesavage subplot, not the standings stakes.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)
Toronto Blue Jays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -32.1 | 5.8% | -4.6 | 35.1 | 39.6 | $306.1M | 30.1 | 11.0 | 3.10 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.74 | -1.99 | -0.81 | 1.48 | 0.34 | 1.18 | 0.99 | 0.54 | 1.40 | 0.01 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.74 | -1.99 | -0.81 | 1.48 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.53 |
Baltimore Orioles
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 9.6 | 8.7% | -3.8 | -9.4 | 52.1 | $214.8M | 29.0 | -14.0 | 2.82 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.28 | 1.13 | -0.68 | -0.41 | 0.78 | 0.14 | -0.02 | -0.67 | 0.85 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.28 | 1.13 | -0.68 | -0.41 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.54 |
Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 112 | 13.4% | 61.8% | 94.3 mph | 22 | 18.4s | -23 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.61 | 1.35 | -0.80 | 0.06 | -1.70 | -0.57 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.22 | 0.68 | -0.40 | 0.06 | 1.70 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.90 |
Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 103 | 9.4% | 64.0% | 95.8 mph | 27 | 21.1s | -2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | -0.51 | 0.10 | 0.73 | -0.38 | 1.64 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.14 | -0.25 | 0.05 | 0.73 | 0.38 | -0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.75 |
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p
Summary
Two teams playing out the string, but there's a legitimate reason to tune in: Zebby Matthews. With a 6.23 pNERD, Matthews owns the best pitcher score of any starter on the board today, driven by mid-90s velocity and some bad luck this year that suggests better days ahead than his 4.74 ERA lets on. Across from him, Blade Tidwell is a much shakier proposition — his 2.81 pNERD reflects an unimpressive xFIP- of 117 and low swinging-strike rate, though he did just turn in a start where he gave up two earned runs and allowed three hits in 6 2/3 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Giants' bullpen has been a mess lately — Giants pitchers have a collective 4.97 ERA over their last 10 games, with 12 home runs allowed — which tracks with their bottom-tier bullpen component. Both clubs are well out of playoff contention, and it shows in the team NERD marks (Twins 3.08, Giants 3.43), both below today's already modest average. This one's about watching Matthews, not the standings.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)
Minnesota Twins
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 15.8 | 7.7% | -4.9 | -20.6 | 11.8 | $122.1M | 28.9 | -9.0 | 2.30 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.43 | 0.05 | -0.86 | -0.89 | -0.64 | -0.92 | -0.06 | -0.43 | -0.17 | -0.69 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.43 | 0.05 | -0.86 | -0.89 | -0.64 | 0.92 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.08 |
San Francisco Giants
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -17.0 | 7.4% | -5.3 | -16.8 | 2.5 | $228.3M | 29.6 | 15.0 | 3.20 | 3.49 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.37 | -0.27 | -0.93 | -0.72 | -0.97 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 1.59 | 2.34 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.37 | -0.27 | -0.93 | -0.72 | -0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.79 | 1.17 | 4.00 | 3.43 |
Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 100 | 9.6% | 63.4% | 95.3 mph | 26 | 17.5s | 14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.11 | -0.41 | -0.17 | 0.50 | -0.64 | -1.30 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.22 | -0.21 | -0.08 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 6.23 |
Blade Tidwell, San Francisco Giants
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 117 | 9.0% | 61.6% | 94.5 mph | 25 | 17.7s | -6 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.91 | -0.69 | -0.91 | 0.15 | -0.91 | -1.14 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -1.81 | -0.35 | -0.46 | 0.15 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 2.81 |
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