MLB: What to watch on September 22, 2026

• 22 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

This one's worth clearing your schedule for: a division-race pitching duel between two nasty lefties, with Cleveland trying to hold onto first place in the AL Central over its final six games. At 16.16, the gNERD score sits near the top of today's slate and well above the historic average, and it's easy to see why. Payton Tolle, Boston's 23-year-old rookie, brings a 10.48 pNERD — his fastball is up near 96 mph, his strikeout stuff is real, and he's fresh off the first immaculate inning by a Red Sox pitcher since Chris Sale's third career immaculate inning in 2021, plus a 14-strikeout gem against Oakland last month. Parker Messick isn't far behind at 8.38, an All-Star this year who allowed three runs over six innings with eight strikeouts in his last outing to push Cleveland into first. Both teams grade out roughly average on tNERD, with Boston getting a lift from a strong bullpen and a bit of positive batting luck suggesting they've underperformed their offensive output. Add genuine playoff stakes — Cleveland's opener of its final six regular-season games, with first place in the AL Central on the line — and you've got a legitimately compelling watch, stuff over standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

A late-September tilt with real stakes for one side and pure playoff-prep for the other, featuring one of baseball's best arms on the mound. The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central for a fourth straight year and are steamrolling toward the league's best record, while the Phillies are still scrapping just to hold onto a wild-card spot. Milwaukee's tNERD (9.89) reflects a genuinely fun team: strong baserunning, a shutdown bullpen, and a young, cheap roster that outperforms its payroll. Philadelphia's offense has cooled to middling territory, dragging its tNERD down to 4.68 despite a deep bullpen. The pitching matchup is the real draw — Dustin May is pitching on short rest after struggling on Friday against the Orioles, and his rest-limited outing (bettors are backing the under on his outs) contrasts sharply with Zack Wheeler, whose 8.37 pNERD is built on an elite xFIP- of 74 and one of the best swinging-strike rates in the game. With a gNERD of 14.63, comfortably above today's average of 10.77 and firmly in the upper reaches of the historical distribution, this one's worth carving out time for, mostly to watch Wheeler work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

Jared Jones's return-from-elbow-surgery arc has quietly become one of the better pitching stories in baseball, and today he brings the best pitcher NERD score of the day into a matchup with a Pirates team playing solid all-around ball. Jones, who missed all of 2025 after internal brace surgery, came back at the end of May and has been excellent: he has pitched 90 2/3 innings in his return, with a 4.17 ERA but an improved 3.50 FIP and a 28.2% strikeout rate. His whiff rate now sits in the 94th percentile at 32.5%, and he's even flirted with history — he's thrown 6 no-hit innings this year. His pNERD of 10.51 is elite, driven by a mid-90s xFIP-, a 98-plus mph fastball, and youth on his side. Pallante, by contrast, is a solid-if-unspectacular ground-ball innings-eater for St. Louis, with his pNERD of 4.43 held down by shaky whiff and strike rates despite good velocity. On the team side, Pittsburgh's baserunning, bullpen, and even some positive batting luck push their tNERD to 7.59, well above the Cardinals' 5.80, giving this game a gNERD of 14.17 — comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, making it one of the more watchable matchups on the slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

A high-scoring pitching mismatch wrapped in playoff stakes — the Cubs are chasing a Wild Card spot and Shota Imanaga is rounding into form at just the right time. This gNERD of 14.06 sits comfortably above the historic median (10.80) and today's average (10.77), driven largely by a strong Cubs tNERD of 10.52, fueled by Ian Happ sitting one homer shy of a top-10 all-time mark and Pete Crow-Armstrong two stolen bases from 40/40 while tied for the league lead with 45 homers. On the mound, Imanaga (pNERD 6.35, well above the 4.24 pitcher average today) is riding a stretch of three solid starts that began against these same Marlins, when he allowed just one earned run on three hits and no walks over six innings — a repeat rematch of that September 4 meeting, which the Cubs won 4-1. Janson Junk (pNERD 2.14) offers little swing-and-miss to counter him. Miami's tNERD (9.11) is buoyed almost entirely by baserunning and low payroll/age quirks rather than actual thump, and the Marlins are miserable on the road. Watch for the Cubs offense, not competitive tension.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

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San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

San Diego brings a five-game winning streak and a freshly punched playoff ticket into Dodger Stadium, while the Dodgers counter with... well, nobody in particular, since Los Angeles is running a bullpen game with an unclear starter — quite possibly featuring Roki Sasaki in high-leverage relief rather than a traditional turn through the rotation. That mystery-arm approach makes the pitching matchup impossible to grade, dragging the average pitcher NERD down to a modest 4.31 despite Michael King doing steady, unspectacular work for the Padres (12-9, 3.19 ERA, a tidy 1.16 WHIP) as his 3.63 pNERD suggests. The real juice here is on the team side: San Diego's 10.77 tNERD is buoyed by a shutdown bullpen and strong defense, while the Dodgers, even missing Shohei Ohtani (biceps, 15-day IL) and playing Kyle Tucker on a bad knee, still boast a lineup so potent it posts a 1.93 batting-runs z-score. Combined, a 14.03 gNERD lands comfortably above both the historical and today's averages — worth catching, mystery pitcher and all, especially with playoff seeding still very much alive for both sides.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Rasmussen brings a legit AL Cy Young case, the Rays have already clinched the AL East, and the Yankees are missing Aaron Judge — so this is worth watching mostly because of the pitching, not the pennant race.

The Rays have wrapped up the division and enter this one having already leading New York by six games with a magic number of two, so the drama here is more about playoff seeding and personal pride than survival — both clubs have clinched postseason spots. Still, Rasmussen's pNERD of 8.20 is well above today's 5.11 average, and for good reason: he's quietly had one of the best seasons of any starter in baseball, sitting at 15-5 with a 2.72 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP, striking out 163 against just 29 walks, and he's been especially sharp lately. Fried's pNERD (4.57) is more middling, dragged down by a slow pace that costs him in the model, though his command remains strong. The Yankees' tNERD (7.35) outpaces Tampa's (4.83), fueled by a much better barrel rate, but New York is playing without Aaron Judge, who went on the 10-day injured list with a right calf strain, which takes some shine off their lineup. Add in a real division rivalry and a pitching matchup that's tighter than the moneyline suggests, and the gNERD of 12.48 — comfortably above the historical average of 10.81 — feels earned.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Max Fried, New York Yankees

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Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Both teams are playing out the string, but the pitching matchup gives this one more juice than the standings suggest. Minnesota (73-84) and San Francisco (65-92) are long eliminated, but Taj Bradley leads the pitching staff with 199 strikeouts and 11 wins, while Luis Arraez continues hitting .324 in a lineup battered by injuries. The real draw is on the mound: Anthony Molina, just 24, posts a 9.21 pNERD—well above today's 5.11 average and near the historic 95th percentile—thanks to plus velocity, a low xFIP-, and an economical 17.3-second pace. Bradley isn't far behind at 7.40, backed by 97-mph heat and his own strong xFIP-. Both offenses are middling and both bullpens and defenses actually drag down their tNERD marks into below-average territory (3.09 and 3.36), so don't expect a crisp, clean game—Minnesota's shaky fielding and bullpen, paired with a similarly leaky Giants defense, could turn this into a track meet despite the modest run totals. At 11.53, the overall gNERD sits just above the historic median, worth a look mainly for the two arms rather than the standings race neither club is part of.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Minnesota Twins

San Francisco Giants

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Anthony Molina, San Francisco Giants

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New York Mets @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

Meaningless-standings baseball with a playoff-race twist: the Mets are dead in the water at 71-85 while the Rangers cling to a one-game lead in the AL West at 78-78, so this is Texas's game to lose down the stretch. Gore takes the ball on short professional pride after leaving his last start early with shoulder and back spasms, though he reported after the game that he felt it wasn't something that would be an issue going forward. His surface numbers look rough, but his 3.89 FIP paints a friendlier picture, and the pNERD math likes his velocity and youth. Manaea, on the other side, gets a modest bump for his elite strike-throwing and unhurried pace, plus some positive regression looming after a bit of tough luck. Neither team's offense stands out — Texas gets credit mostly for a lucky over-performance boost, and the Mets' bullpen and barrel rate keep them respectable. At 11.32, the gNERD sits a shade above today's average of 10.77, buoyed more by decent-not-great pitching than by anything the lineups are doing. Watch if you like playoff stakes on one side and irrelevant-but-competent arms on both.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Texas Rangers

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

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Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

A rookie arm's homecoming meets a journeyman's return from Asia, but neither team has much on the line—Detroit's already been eliminated from playoff contention, and Washington is playing out the string. Riley Cornelio, a 26-year-old righty in his first full MLB season, brings a fastball that hums at 96.5 mph and a strong swinging-strike rate, though his control command lags—his pNERD of 2.81 reflects that unsteady mix. On the other side, Drew Anderson, who spent years pitching in Japan and Korea before landing in Detroit, has quietly been Detroit's most reliable arm lately; over three September starts, he's allowed just four earned runs across 16 innings, and in his most recent outing he delivered five scoreless frames against Toronto. His 6.05 pNERD is comfortably above average. Washington's tNERD (8.12) is buoyed by excellent baserunning and a young, cheap roster, but a dreadful bullpen drags things down—context that matters after Detroit clubbed three homers in Monday's opener. Detroit's tNERD (3.65) is unremarkable. Overall gNERD of 10.32 sits almost exactly at today's average—watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Washington Nationals

Detroit Tigers

Riley Cornelio, Washington Nationals

Drew Anderson, Detroit Tigers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

A high-stakes September tilt with genuine stakes but modest NERD juice. The Rays can clinch the AL East outright if the Yankees fail to sweep this doubleheader, and Nick Martinez faces Carlos Rodon in a matchup between two starters carrying ERAs below 3.00, with the Rays potentially clinching the AL East if the Yankees don't sweep this four-game set. That context punches above what the raw 9.64 gNERD suggests — it lands right around league average, just below the historical midpoint of 10.8. Rodón's pNERD of 3.74 reflects a solid but unspectacular xFIP- of 101, boosted by a healthy swinging-strike rate but dinged by shaky strike-throwing; Martinez's 3.36 pNERD tells a similar story, elevated only by excellent command of the zone. Neither pitcher profiles as a must-watch arm on stuff alone. The Yankees' tNERD (7.35) outpaces Tampa's (4.83), largely thanks to New York's power-hitting barrel rate, while the Rays get docked hard for weak contact quality despite solid baserunning. Tampa Bay has produced just a 91 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, ranking 22nd in MLB, and now draws a southpaw whose strength attacks that weakness. Watch for playoff-race tension more than pitching artistry.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

Arizona's playoff push meets Coors Field chaos, with Michael Soroka trying to keep the Diamondbacks' fading wild-card hopes alive against a Rockies team that's simply playing out the string. At 82-74 and clinging to postseason hopes, Arizona enters Coors Field with its playoff life on the line, needing performances like the ones Soroka has been delivering. Soroka brings the better arm and the better underlying numbers here, with a strong xFIP- driving his 6.08 pNERD—easily the more compelling half of this pitching matchup. Freeland, on the other hand, is stuck in a rough season at 4-10 with a 6.38 ERA, but he has accumulated 104 strikeouts and knows Coors Field's rhythms intimately; his tidy strike-throwing shows up in the NERD math, though a hefty positive luck score suggests his results have been worse than his stuff deserves. Team-wise, this isn't much of a showcase: Arizona's tNERD gets a boost from strong baserunning and fielding, while Colorado's offense and defense drag its tNERD down near the bottom of today's range. At a gNERD of 9.46, this sits below the historical average—watchable mainly for stakes and altitude-fueled unpredictability, not craftsmanship. Hunter Goodman's 39 home runs make him the most dangerous bat in the Colorado lineup, while Nolan Arenado brings 27 home runs and 78 RBI for Arizona.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

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Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

A lefty-on-lefty matchup between a fading Royals team and a White Sox club still clawing at a playoff spot, with just enough offense and bullpen intrigue to make it watchable if not essential. Chicago enters riding a winning weekend and sits one game behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians, while Kansas City enters on a four-game losing streak — a pennant race against a team playing out the string. Anthony Kay (pNERD 2.21) brings mediocre peripherals — a below-average xFIP- and modest strikeout stuff — but is seeking his first victory since Aug. 8 after a no-decision at Cleveland where he allowed two runs in four innings. Daniel Lynch IV (pNERD 3.87) has quietly stabilized as a starter, working five scoreless innings against Houston in his last start, his third straight five-inning outing since shifting to the rotation. Neither guy misses many bats, so expect this to lean on bullpens — Chicago's is solid (tNERD-boosting), Kansas City's is genuinely bad, dragging the Royals' tNERD down significantly. The White Sox's tNERD of 8.25 is well above the historic 75th percentile, driven largely by a young, cheap roster; Kansas City's 4.45 is closer to league average. Combined gNERD of 9.39 sits below today's average of 10.77 — watchable filler, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

This one's for the standings-indifferent completionist, not the casual viewer. Both the Astros and Mariners are playing out the string with matching losing records, so the appeal here rests almost entirely on Logan Gilbert's arm.

Houston (77-79) and Seattle (73-83) are both just trying to avoid further indignity down the stretch, and neither offense nor defense gives you much reason to tune in — both clubs post middling batting numbers dragged down by shaky gloves, with Seattle's defense rated average and Houston's offense rated below average in one projection system; the Mariners' fielding runs (-46.1) are particularly ugly. Combined tNERD sits at a modest 4.84, well off today's 5.66 average. The pitching matchup is lopsided: Javier has struggled this year, a 5.31 ERA and 1.46 WHIP leaving little margin for error, while Gilbert comes in with 12 wins, a sharp 3.69 ERA, and 194 strikeouts. Gilbert's 7.87 pNERD, built on plus velocity and a strong xFIP-, is the actual draw — worth catching just for his four or five innings even if you tune out for the rest of a fairly forgettable 7.32 gNERD affair.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners

Cristian Javier, Houston Astros

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Two last-place AL West clubs closing out lost seasons meet in a game whose main appeal is watching Yusei Kikuchi try to avoid a sixth loss while the Athletics' bullpen tries not to implode again. This one grades out below average on gNERD (6.65, well under the historic mean of 10.81 and today's 10.77), largely because both offenses and defenses are dreadful — the Angels and A's rank near the bottom of the league in batting, baserunning, and fielding runs, dragging both tNERD scores toward the basement. The pitching is more watchable than the team numbers suggest: Basso (pNERD 5.32) brings a tidy xFIP- of 98 and a strong strike rate, though his last start against Tampa Bay was a mess — "gave up four earned runs and allowed seven hits in 2 2/3 innings." Kikuchi (pNERD 4.71) still throws hard at 35, sitting 95.7 mph, but his last outing wasn't much better — he "went 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs while surrendering five hits" against Seattle. Kikuchi's positive luck score hints his 5.02 ERA overstates how bad he's been. Otherwise, this is late-September filler between two non-contenders — watch only if you enjoy sunk-cost baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Athletics

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Brady Basso, Athletics

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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Not one for the appointment book: this is a division champ playing out the string against a last-place team with a rotten pitching matchup. Atlanta clinched its seventh NL East title in nine years over the weekend and rolls in fresh off a sweep in Houston, while Cincinnati is eliminated, has scored the fewest runs in the NL Central, and just got swept at home by the Cubs.

The gNERD here sits at 5.62, well below the historic median of 10.80 and near the bottom of today's slate (5.52–16.16), so temper expectations. Team NERD leans slightly toward Atlanta's deeper bullpen and better fielding, though the Braves get zero credit for their -33 luck score, which actually suggests some regression could be coming. On the mound, Ritchie's most recent outing was rough — he allowed six runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs on Sept. 16, and Williamson posts a putrid -1.30 pNERD driven by an ugly xFIP- of 138. Both starters carry ERAs above 5.00, and neither projects to work deep, meaning you're likely watching a bullpen game by the fifth inning. Ritchie, a 23-year-old rookie, at least offers some swing-and-miss upside and youth appeal, but this is a game to skip unless you've got nothing else on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Cincinnati Reds

Atlanta Braves

Brandon Williamson, Cincinnati Reds

JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

Both Toronto and Baltimore are mathematically fringe wild-card teams playing out a September series with more nostalgia than stakes, but the Bassitt-facing-his-old-team subplot gives it a little juice. Bassitt spent three seasons in Toronto before landing in Baltimore, and he's already beaten his former club once this month, allowing two runs over five innings on Sept. 11; he enters on a run of four wins in his last five starts, including a one-run, 6.7-inning outing against the Mets. His FIP-driven pNERD (1.32) edges out Scherzer's, though neither number is anything to write home about. Scherzer, at 41 and sporting a 6.07 ERA, is essentially running on fumes at this point of his career — his xFIP- of 132 drags his pNERD down to a modest 0.50, and only a hefty positive luck figure (implying he's underperforming his peripherals) keeps him afloat. Toronto's lineup is further dinged by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s lower-back tightness, which kept him out of Monday's game, while Baltimore got a lift from Pete Alonso's two homers in the series opener. Combined tNERD favors Baltimore's bullpen and barrel rate, but at 5.52 this gNERD sits near the bottom of both today's and the historical range — a game for completists, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

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