MLB: What to watch on September 23, 2026

• 23 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs, 4:40p

Summary

A high-scoring Wrigley matchup with genuine playoff stakes and two starters trending in opposite directions — one of the better watches on the board today. The Cubs (87-70) are locking up their October spot, though they coughed up an extra-inning loss to Miami on Tuesday, and Kevin Gausman gets the ball looking to steady things after allowing five earned runs or more in two of his last four starts. Still, his 7.42 pNERD reflects real swing-and-miss stuff and a strong xFIP-, plus some positive regression coming given his rough luck number. Ryan Gusto is the more interesting story: he arrives in outstanding form, allowing two earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, though his modest pNERD (4.04) suggests the underlying peripherals haven't fully caught up to the results. The Cubs' 10.42 tNERD is carried by elite batting and fielding runs — Pete Crow-Armstrong has 45 home runs, tops in MLB — while Miami's 8.98 leans on speed, youth, and a shaky bullpen. At 15.43 gNERD, this sits well above the historic median and near today's ceiling.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Milwaukee's playoff-bound machine rolls into Philly with a rookie phenom on the mound, and the Phillies are down their ace — this one's worth your evening. Logan Henderson, just 24, has quietly authored one of the better rookie seasons in baseball; he's going 10-3 with a 2.51 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 107 strikeouts across 93 1/3 innings, and his 9.16 pNERD ranks near the top of today's slate. It's also his first career appearance against Philadelphia. Aaron Nola, by contrast, is having a rough go by his standards — a 7-10 record, 4.49 ERA, 4.78 FIP, and 169 strikeouts over 168 1/3 innings — though his xFIP- suggests some bad luck baked in, and his positive luck component here hints at overdue improvement. The bigger story for Philly: Jesus Luzardo, the Phillies' best starter at 14-5 with a sparkling 2.87 ERA, has been out since mid-September with left shoulder inflammation and won't return before the regular season ends. Milwaukee's tNERD (9.95) dwarfs Philadelphia's (4.71), driven by superior baserunning, bullpen, and a notably younger roster. Combined gNERD of 14.46 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — tune in for Henderson, stay for a Brewers team peaking at the right time.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

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San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

Playoff seeding is on the line, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is finishing an excellent season in style, and Robbie Ray is walking a tightrope every fifth day — this one has stakes and a real pitching mismatch worth tuning in for.

The stage is set: the Dodgers lead their division, but San Diego has pulled level with the Chicago Cubs for the top NL Wild Card spot, while the Dodgers are chasing the NL's No. 1 seed, so this late-September tilt carries real seeding implications for both sides. Yamamoto (pNERD 8.65, comfortably above the day's average) has been dominant all year — he's lasted seven innings in each of his three September starts and is 2-1 against the Padres this season with only three runs allowed in 20 innings, 22 strikeouts against six walks. His xFIP- of 77 says the shutdown stuff is real, not mirage. Ray, on the other hand, is the drag on this matchup: since moving from San Francisco to San Diego in August, he's posted a 5.22 ERA and 5.86 xERA in eight starts, with nearly as many walks (26) as strikeouts (31) — his pNERD of 0.76 reflects exactly that control problem. Both lineups are lively (Padres' bullpen and fielding numbers pop, Dodgers' Judge-less-but-still-loaded offense leads the league in batting runs), pushing the gNERD to 14.43, well above both the historic and today's averages — tune in for the stakes and Yamamoto, tolerate Ray's control issues.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

Gerrit Cole taking the mound is still the headline here — the two-time strikeout king who missed months earlier this year returned in May with six scoreless innings against these same Rays, admitting "it was a long road" back. He's been vintage Cole since, and the peripherals back it up: a 96.8 mph average fastball, elite strike-throwing, and an xFIP- comfortably better than league average, giving him a 7.26 pNERD, well above today's average. Mason Englert is a more middling story with career numbers still finding their footing, but he throws strikes and won't hand out free passes. Standings-wise this one's mostly ceremonial — the AL East race is over, with Tampa Bay having clinched the division and the American League's top playoff seed — but New York's lineup has been reshaped by injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, pushing players like Spencer Jones and José Caballero into bigger roles. The Yankees' NERD-friendly barrel rate gives their offense some juice. At 12.03, the gNERD sits above both the historical and today's averages — worth a look mainly for Cole.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Mason Englert, Tampa Bay Rays

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 4:10p

Summary

A quietly effective pitching duel wrapped in real postseason stakes—Cleveland is riding a six-game winning streak atop the AL Central by a single game, while Boston, despite a three-game skid, has already locked up a wild card spot and just wants to stop the bleeding. Sonny Gray, dazzling this year with an xFIP- of 88, brings a career mark against Cleveland that includes a 9-1 demolition back in May, though his glacial 21.5-second pace drags his pNERD down a bit. Foster Griffin counters with an even better xFIP- (91) and the intrigue of having never faced a single Red Sox hitter. Both bullpens are legitimately strong, which explains why both tNERD marks sit comfortably above average, and Boston's positive luck score hints they've actually been underperforming their skill level, so more offense might be overdue. The 11.91 gNERD clears both the historic and today's-slate averages, making this a sneaky-good watch for a game that isn't dripping with September drama on paper.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 3:40p

Summary

A dead-rubber game between two teams playing out the string, but the pitching matchup has a genuine contrast worth a quick look. Pittsburgh has won five straight and is chasing its first winning record since 2018, riding a bullpen game approach with Lake Bachar after Pittsburgh sought a season-high sixth straight victory, turning to Bachar in a bullpen game against Liberatore. Bachar's been solid in a swingman role — a 3.90 pNERD is unspectacular but his whiff rate stands out, even if his below-average strike-throwing keeps the walks around. Liberatore, by contrast, has had a rough year overall but actually posts the higher pNERD (5.96) thanks to youth and some brutal bad luck (his 32.0 luck score suggests he's been getting hit by variance more than his skills deserve) — that gap between his ugly ERA and his more respectable peripherals is worth noting for anyone skeptical of box-score stat lines. Historically, his own Pittsburgh numbers have been shaky too, going 2-4 with a 5.60 ERA in 12 career games against the Pirates. Team-wise, Pittsburgh's 7.60 tNERD (built on solid bullpen and baserunning marks) edges a middling Cardinals club. The 11.54 gNERD lands almost exactly at today's slate average — not a must-watch, but not a skip either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals

Lake Bachar, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

I have enough context to write the summary.

A battle of teams playing out the string, but with just enough juice to matter for one side. The White Sox arrive on a winning streak and still nursing faint wild-card hopes, while the Royals have been eliminated from playoff contention and are riding a five-game losing skid into this one — so don't expect playoff intensity, just professional pride and a lot of roster auditioning. Chicago's tNERD (8.51) is buoyed by a young, cheap roster and solid batted-ball quality, while Kansas City's tNERD (4.37) gets dragged down hard by an atrocious bullpen — its worst component by a mile — though the offense has actually been unlucky and could be better than its output suggests. On the mound, Bryan Hudson brings the better peripherals of the two, throwing strikes at an elite clip and posting a tidy xFIP-, while Seth Lugo, working on a bloated ERA relative to his skill markers, gets a lift here mainly from a quick pace and some positive regression buried in his luck number. Nothing historic at stake, but a solidly average-to-good gNERD of 11.52 for a September get-away-day tilt with no real stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals

Bryan Hudson, Chicago White Sox

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Chris Sale, tuning up for October, is the reason to watch this one—everything else is filler. This is Sale's last regular-season start before he opens Atlanta's Wild Card series, and the Braves have taken great pains this season to protect the 37-year-old veteran by giving him additional rest between starts, with four starts on six days' rest and four on seven, including 12 days of rest since his last outing on Sept. 11. His pNERD of 9.78 is comfortably above today's field (average 4.63, max 9.78) and reflects a genuinely elite year—14-9 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and 190 strikeouts in 157 innings—backed by a sparkling 68 xFIP-. Opposite him, Andrew Abbott brings a 1.96 pNERD and has been shaky lately: recent form complicates that read, as Abbott has not completed five innings in any of his last four starts, including seven earned runs in 3.0 innings at Chicago on August 29. The Reds did just snap a skid by recording a 4-0 win over Atlanta on Tuesday, evening the season series at two victories apiece, and Elly De La Cruz remains a watchable X-factor after hitting a solo shot, his 29th homer, and stealing a base, his 29th, on Tuesday. The gNERD of 10.76 sits right around historic average, but Sale's stuff and stakes make it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Cincinnati Reds

Atlanta Braves

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets @ Texas Rangers, 5:05p

Summary

A rookie phenom worth catching, on the other side of a game that mostly matters for what's not going right in Texas. Nolan McLean, still just 24 and only a year removed from his big-league debut, brings a 7.59 pNERD built on excellent xFIP- and a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and this looks like it could be his final start of the regular season, since he won't pitch on short rest, so the Mets figure to let him air it out. He's squaring off against Cody Bradford, whose 1.02 pNERD tells the story: a low-90s-and-under fastball, middling strikeout stuff, and an xFIP- north of 125 that's produced a winless season for the Rangers lefty. Texas is dealing with rotation thinness too — Cal Quantrill is on the injured list with a right lat strain, pushing arms like Bradford into bigger roles down the stretch. Both tNERD marks sit almost exactly at league average, with the Rangers' offense buoyed by a hefty positive luck score suggesting some overperformance that could cool off, while the Mets counter with a solid bullpen and one of the better broadcast booths in the sport. Net result: a modestly above-average 9.79 gNERD, worth tuning in largely to watch McLean work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Texas Rangers

Nolan McLean, New York Mets

Cody Bradford, Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 3:35p

Summary

A modest afternoon tilt in Baltimore that leans more "getaway day" than must-watch, though Camden Yards has a way of making even ordinary matchups watchable. The Orioles get a slight tNERD edge (5.72 to Toronto's 3.47) thanks to a healthy barrel rate and a bullpen that's quietly been effective, while the Blue Jays' offense has actually been dragging down their otherwise strong glove work and stacked $306 million payroll. On the mound, Chris Bassitt takes the ball for Baltimore sporting a 4.64 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 97 2/3 innings, coming off a start against the Mets where he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just one earned run. The 37-year-old righty is chasing his fifth quality start of the season and trying to go five-plus innings for the eighth straight time. Toronto counters with Brett Bateman, an unknown quantity statistically — both pitchers carry pNERD scores of zero here, meaning there's simply no track record to lean on. With a gNERD of 9.59, this one sits a touch below the historical average and near the middle of today's slate — watchable if it's on, skippable if it's not.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

Both teams are out of contention, but there's a sneaky-good reason to tune in: Connor Prielipp. The Twins rookie lefty is fresh off a gem, tossing seven scoreless innings against the Angels in his last start, and his 7.57 pNERD (well above today's average) reflects real skills — mid-90s velocity, a favorable xFIP-, and some bad luck that suggests his 4.94 ERA undersells him. He's a 25-year-old still building his track record, and this is a good chance to see why scouts like the arm. On the other side, Cesar Perdomo gives Giants fans little to grip — he's making just his fourth career start, has a bloated 1.50 WHIP, and hasn't finished the fifth inning in either of his last two outings, raising the specter of an early bullpen exposure for a Giants relief corps already taxed this series. Both teams grade out as thin on the offensive and bullpen end — Minnesota and San Francisco both post middling-to-poor tNERDs, with the Giants' bullpen and baserunning marks near the bottom of the league. The gNERD of 9.41 sits below both the historic and today's averages, making this one for pitching-development watchers more than anyone chasing drama, though the Twins won last night 3-2 to even the series, so there's at least a rubber match on the line.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Minnesota Twins

San Francisco Giants

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

Cesar Perdomo, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Both teams are out of the playoff race, and it shows: this is a getaway-day bullpen game between two clubs playing out the string, though Valdez's late-season form gives it a sliver of intrigue. Detroit's Framber Valdez, in his first year post-Houston, carries the day's best pNERD (3.24) thanks to a solid xFIP-, and he's been sneaky good lately — Valdez threw seven scoreless innings at Cleveland on September 5 and six scoreless against Colorado on September 11, though he gave up three runs on four walks over five innings at the White Sox on September 17. Washington, meanwhile, isn't even bothering with a real starter: Nationals ace Cade Cavalli was originally scheduled to start but Washington shut him down for the season, instead using a bullpen game with Richard Lovelady opening. Lovelady's pNERD (1.21) reflects replacement-level stuff with a below-average whiff rate. The Nationals' 8.17 tNERD outpaces Detroit's 3.76, driven by strong baserunning and a young, cheap roster, but a dreadful bullpen (nearly the worst z-score here) undercuts that. At 8.19, the gNERD sits below both the historic and today's averages — a game for completists rather than appointment viewing, elevated only by Valdez chasing a strong finish to a forgettable season on both sides.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Washington Nationals

Detroit Tigers

Richard Lovelady, Washington Nationals

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

A last-place matchup redeemed almost entirely by one electric rookie arm—this is a watch-the-kid game, not a watch-the-standings game. Both the Angels and Athletics are buried near the bottom of the AL, and it shows in tNERD scores of just 0.86 and 2.55, reflecting shaky batting, baserunning, and fielding on both sides. But Walbert Ureña, the 22-year-old Angels righty, is the real story: he's one of the more quietly effective starters in the AL this season — a 2.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are hard to argue with, backed by a 98 mph fastball and a pNERD of 8.25 that's comfortably above today's average. Across from him, Jeffrey Springs has had a miserable year—Springs has struggled all year with a 6.18 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP—and his xFIP- of 120 confirms it's not just bad luck, though his own underlying luck number suggests even his rough results have been a touch unlucky. With a gNERD of 6.74, well below the historical median, this is a game to watch for the rookie, not the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Los Angeles Angels (2.01)

Los Angeles Angels

Athletics

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 5:40p

Summary

This is a game with playoff stakes on one side and lottery-ticket rookie pitching on the other, set at altitude — which at least guarantees some action even if the pitching matchup doesn't inspire much confidence. Arizona is fighting for its postseason life, having started their final week with a commanding 7-2 victory over the Colorado Rockies, winning three games in a row to keep their playoff window cracked open, and they remain four games back of San Diego and Philadelphia with 5 games to play. The Rockies, meanwhile, are playing out the string after Arizona sent Colorado to its 100th loss of the season Tuesday, and their tNERD of 1.57 reflects a roster that's been bad basically everywhere — weak batting, brutal fielding, and a defense that keeps handing free bases away. Colorado does get a slight luck bump, having underperformed its skill-based numbers, but not enough to offset the rest.

Merrill Kelly, at 37, brings a diminished fastball and elevated xFIP that drag his pNERD down to a modest 1.89 despite a long, useful career; he's making his 29th start with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Opposite him, Rockies rookie Mason Adams gets a slight bump for youth but is walking too many hitters and still finding his feet, making his second career MLB appearance. With a gNERD of 6.28, well below today's average of 10.23 and toward the lower end of the historical range, this one leans more on Arizona's playoff urgency than on any pitching artistry — expect Coors Field to do what Coors Field does.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Mason Adams, Colorado Rockies

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Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

A playoff-race game with lopsided pitching intrigue: Houston's division chase makes this matter more than the NERD math initially suggests, but the George Kirby vs. Ethan Pecko mismatch is the real hook. Houston just throttled Seattle 7-0 on Tuesday to reclaim the top spot in the AL West, a division Houston has won in seven of the past nine years, and they're clinging to a slim lead over Texas with five games left. Kirby carries a 7.29 pNERD — comfortably above today's 4.63 average — built on 96.8 mph velocity and a tidy 95 xFIP-, plus a positive luck score suggesting his pedestrian ERA undersells him. Pecko, by contrast, checks in at -0.24, near the bottom of today's pitcher pool, with rough strike-throwing peripherals. Team-wise, both clubs are mediocre by NERD standards (tNERDs of 2.82 and 2.32), reflecting shaky fielding and baserunning on both sides — Seattle's defense has been especially porous, part of a season that included the franchise's worst loss ever, a 22-0 embarrassment to Milwaukee. Yordan Alvarez looms as the swing factor for Houston. Watch for Kirby's stuff, not the scoreboard implications alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Seattle Mariners (2.35); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners

Ethan Pecko, Houston Astros

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 10:35a

Summary

Two last-place also-rans playing out the string, salvaged only by two graybeard pitchers making their final laps. This gNERD of 5.50 sits well below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate average (10.23), so temper expectations — this is the nightcap of a doubleheader made necessary by Tuesday's rainout in Baltimore, and neither club has anything but pride on the line, with both Toronto and Baltimore hovering in the mid-70s in losses and out of the wild-card picture. The pitching matchup is a study in fading stuff rather than must-see stuff: 41-year-old Max Scherzer (pNERD 0.50) is getting hit hard by his own xFIP- of 132, though positive luck suggests his results have actually been worse than deserved, while 37-year-old Chris Bassitt (pNERD 1.31) isn't missing many bats either. Toronto's offense has been quietly punchless — a rough -0.83 batting-runs component and a brutal barrel-rate z-score of -2.00 — while Baltimore's tNERD of 5.72 gets a boost from a lively bullpen and above-average barrel rate. Watch if you like nostalgia for aging arms; skip if you want stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore Orioles

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

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  MLB: What to watch on September 22, 2026