MLB: What to watch on September 24, 2026

• 24 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers, 7:10p

Summary

This one's near the top of the pile for watchability, pairing a playoff-race gut-punch with the two best arms either roster can offer. The Padres just took sole possession of the NL wild-card lead by beating the Dodgers 5-1 behind a Manny Machado three-RBI game, snapping LA's 11-game home winning streak, so there's real juice left even with the Dodgers' division title already banked. Glasnow is the headline arm here, sitting at a 9.19 pNERD (well above today's 5.96 average) thanks to elite strikeout stuff and a barely-there xFIP-, and he's doing it in just his 13th start of the season after battling injuries — durability, not dominance, has been the question mark. Pivetta, making only his eighth start for similar reasons, still brings a strong xFIP- of his own. Both bullpens grade out well statistically, and San Diego's pen has Mason Miller, who has 37 saves and a 1.19 ERA, lurking if it stays close. With a gNERD of 17.24 comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, this is one of the better watches on the board.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

A season-finale AL East tune-up that still has one genuinely great pitching performance to watch. Cam Schlittler has quietly authored an ace-caliber campaign for the Yankees, and both teams have already locked up their postseason fates, so this is more showcase than survival — but Schlittler's stuff makes it worth tuning in regardless.

Schlittler's pNERD of 10.82 sits well above today's field (average 5.96, ranking near the historical 95th percentile), and it's earned: his four-seam fastball sits at 98.0 mph with a .232 xwOBA against and 31.5% whiff rate, backed by a curveball that generates a 41.7% whiff rate. He's been the best pitcher in the American League by ERA this season, sitting at 1.94 with a 14-6 record — though he's reportedly lined up for Tuesday's wild-card game, so a short leash is possible. Seymour is no slouch either (pNERD 8.85), riding elite xFIP-, but he's an ERA over 5.00 across his past five appearances. The Yankees' offense (tNERD 7.38) brings serious thump, especially second in xwOBA and first in barrel rate against left-handed pitching. With a gNERD of 15.78, comfortably above the daily and historical averages, this one's worth your remote — just don't expect either bullpen to stick around long.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:05p

Summary

A rookie surprise start makes this one worth catching, even with both teams mostly playing out playoff seeding rather than fighting for their lives. Andrew Painter, Philadelphia's prized 23-year-old, has scuffled to a 5.59 ERA this season, but his pNERD of 7.72 comes from real stuff underneath — mid-90s velocity, a young arm, and a hefty positive luck score suggesting his results should be better than they've looked. Milwaukee counters with Shane Drohan, who's quietly been effective in his rookie campaign and carries his own solid 6.86 pNERD, making this an above-average arms matchup for a Thursday afternoon. The bigger story is context: the Brewers already own baseball's best record and clinched at 99 wins the night before, while the Phillies are still jockeying for wild-card position after failing to clinch behind Aaron Nola's implosion. Milwaukee's tNERD of 9.92 reflects a genuinely fun, athletic roster — strong baserunning, bullpen, and a young lineup — while Philadelphia's offense has been a season-long liability. At 14.60, the gNERD lands comfortably above today's average of 11.79, making this a solidly watchable game.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Milwaukee Brewers

Philadelphia Phillies

Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers

Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates, 9:35a

Summary

Skenes brings a Cy Young pedigree but has quietly labored through a down year, and this finale carries genuine late-season stakes for both fading clubs, which makes it worth a look even outside the shiny NERD number. This is the highest-rated matchup on the board today by a comfortable margin, and Skenes is the reason: his 9.82 pNERD is well above average even in a season where Skenes will attempt to help the Pirates secure their first non-losing season since 2018. The stat line undersells him a bit — his xFIP- sits at just 81, and a mid-90s heater with excellent whiff rates still make him must-watch when he's on, even though Skenes arrives at this contest in subpar form, allowing five earned runs or more in two of his last four starts. Opposite him, Kyle Leahy has been a solid, unglamorous complement (5.78 pNERD) despite struggling recently, allowing five earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. Team-wise, Pittsburgh's 7.60 tNERD outpaces St. Louis's 5.70, fueled by a lively bullpen and baserunning, while the Cardinals lean on youth and D but have been unlucky at the plate. Both teams are playing out the string, but St. Louis is trying to win for the third time in four games and needs to sweep its remaining games to avoid a second straight losing season — so there's at least a sliver of desperation on both sides.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, St. Louis Cardinals (2.17); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

St. Louis Cardinals

Pittsburgh Pirates

Kyle Leahy, St. Louis Cardinals

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs, 11:20a

Summary

Miami has taken the first two games of this series at Wrigley, and the Cubs are trying to avoid a home sweep in their final regular-season home series, which gives this getaway-day finale some late-September stakes even with both clubs' playoff pictures mostly settled. The Cubs bring the far stronger roster to the table, with elite fielding and batting numbers pushing their tNERD to 10.42 (well above today's 5.91 average), while Miami's tNERD checks in a shade lower at 9.05, boosted mostly by baserunning and a young, cheap roster that's quietly underperforming its luck-adjusted expectations. On the mound, neither Tyler Phillips nor Matthew Boyd is a marquee arm — Phillips has not reached the fifth in either of his last two turns, and neither exit followed a blowup — Miami simply took the ball — which puts a thin Marlins bullpen right back to work after grinding through extra innings and a bullpen game earlier in the series. Boyd, meanwhile, is fresh off a strong performance against Cincinnati, allowing just a single earned run on two hits in 5.0 innings, though he's never faced this Miami lineup. With a combined gNERD of 14.25, comfortably above the historical median, this one's watchable more for its late-season pennant-race texture than any pitching duel for the ages.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Miami Marlins

Chicago Cubs

Tyler Phillips, Miami Marlins

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

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Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals, 11:10a

Summary

Good stakes narrative: White Sox fighting for division, playoff race with Cleveland; Royals eliminated but playing spoiler; series has been high-scoring track meet with 22-1 blowout earlier in season. Now write summary.

The White Sox are fighting for their playoff lives while the Royals are just here to spoil the party, and if this series is any indication, buckle up for some runs. Chicago sits a game back of Cleveland for the AL Central crown, and after Tuesday's wild 14-11 White Sox win and a 22-1 blowout earlier this season, the over has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings between these two AL Central rivals. David Sandlin brings real swing-and-miss stuff (his pNERD of 7.72 is well above average) but his results have been erratic — he allowed 14 runs across his last three starts, spanning just 15 innings, including five earned runs on seven hits in only four innings. Randy Dobnak, by contrast, is more finesse than power, with a modest 3.59 pNERD built mostly on a quick pace rather than stuff, and he was tattooed by the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out, allowing four runs, seven hits and two walks in just 3 2/3 IP. Chicago's tNERD of 8.60 stands out (youth, payroll efficiency, solid bullpen) against Kansas City's middling 4.43, dragged down by a rough bullpen but boosted by some positive regression luck. At 12.18 gNERD, this sits above the historical median and right around today's average — not a marquee game, but the stakes and scoring trends make it worth a glance.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Kansas City Royals (2.11); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals

David Sandlin, Chicago White Sox

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

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Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox, 3:45p

Summary

The Guardians are one win from clinching a playoff berth, and Ranger Suarez is doing everything he can to make them wait, closing his season with a run that's been nails: the left-hander has been better than that recently, allowing two earned runs over his last 19.2 innings across three September starts, including a start where that stretch includes seven scoreless against Baltimore and a seven-inning, eight-strikeout outing against Kansas City. His 5.31 pNERD reflects a strong xFIP- and solid deceptive pace, making him the best reason to tune in. On the other side, Daniel Espino's 0.00 pNERD isn't a knock on stuff — this is an opener, and the Guardians bullpen is responsible for roughly seven innings. The stuff is real, at 14.85 strikeouts per nine — it's just a lack of traditional starter data for a former top prospect finally back after multiple shoulder surgeries. Both bullpens grade out well, and Cleveland's young, cheap roster construction (low payroll, low age) padding its tNERD to 7.06, edging Boston's 6.90. Boston's own tNERD gets a boost from a hefty positive luck score, suggesting this offense has actually underperformed its true talent — a little scary for Cleveland given they're clinging to a rubber match in a tightening race. At 12.14, this gNERD sits a bit above the historical average and squarely in the middle of today's slate — decent, not essential, but the stakes make it worth a look.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Boston Red Sox

Daniel Espino, Cleveland Guardians

No detailed stats available

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

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New York Mets @ Texas Rangers, 11:35a

Summary

Both teams are already out of the playoff race, but there's still a tidy little storyline: the Mets have swept the first two games of this series in Arlington, winning 6-3 and 7-2, and are trying to finish the job as the Rangers try to avoid getting broomed at home in their season finale at Globe Life Field. Kumar Rocker, once a Mets draft pick who never signed and instead landed with Texas, gets a bit of symbolic revenge duty facing his old organization — though his season has been rough, with 59 walks and 20 home runs allowed over 143 innings, and a September stretch of 14 hits and eight runs over 13 1/3 innings, plus just 3.0, 4.0 and 4.1 innings in his last three starts. Rookie lefty Zac Thornton counters for New York, and while he has no pNERD data available, reports note a 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 14 starts, missing few bats but rarely walking anyone, which lets him work deep into games. The gNERD of 9.80 sits below both the historical and today's averages, with Rocker's short outings and shaky command dragging things down — this is a game for completists only, not appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Texas Rangers

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

A fading Reds team plays out the string against a Braves club that's already banked its playoff spot, and neither the standings gap nor the pitching matchup gives you much reason to clear your schedule. Cincinnati sits at 73-85 and well out of contention, while Atlanta enters at 93-65 atop the NL East and holds a 3-2 edge in the season series. On the mound, Tyler Mahle's tidy 3.81 ERA and stronger underlying numbers (xFIP- of 90, good for a solid +1.40 boost to his 5.40 pNERD) contrast sharply with Brady Singer, who's been rough lately — a 9.17 ERA over his last seven starts. Singer's peripheral xFIP- of 111 is genuinely shaky, though positive luck (+1.00) suggests some regression toward better results is plausible. Offensively, keep an eye on Elly De La Cruz, who's been the Reds' table-setter, against a Braves lineup anchored by Matt Olson and Michael Harris II. With a gNERD of 9.52 — below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.79) — and modest team NERD marks on both sides (Reds 4.38, Braves 5.24), this one leans skippable unless you're a Reds completist watching the season wind down.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Cincinnati Reds

Atlanta Braves

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Tyler Mahle, Atlanta Braves

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

A meaningless-standings matchup salvaged by two genuinely nasty right-handed arms. The Angels (60-98) are playing out the string in Seattle, but Bryan Woo and Grayson Rodriguez give this game more juice than its tNERD scores suggest.

Both teams are duds on the offensive/fielding side — Seattle's tNERD of 2.23 and the Angels' 0.78 both sit well below the historic 25th percentile, dragged down by shaky defense (Seattle's fielding runs are a brutal -45.8) and lackluster baserunning on both sides. But the mound matchup carries this one. Bryan Woo carries a 12-9 record, a 3.92 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP across 167.2 innings with 167 strikeouts, and his 96-mph fastball and elite strike-throwing (0.87 and 0.81 z-scores) power a 7.87 pNERD, comfortably above today's average. He was roughed up last time out — he gave up three earned runs and allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies — but his underlying xFIP- of 88 says that's noise, not a trend. Rodriguez has been homer-prone and hittable overall, but turned in his cleanest outing in weeks against Minnesota, going 6.2 innings and allowing three earned runs while he struck out four without issuing a walk, and his 96.2-mph heat still plays. With T-Mobile Park's pitcher-friendly reputation in play, expect a tighter, low-scoring affair than the standings would imply — watch for the arms, not the lineups.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 12:10p

Summary

I have enough to write the summary now.

Arizona is still clinging to playoff hopes, so at least one team has something to play for; the Rockies, on the other hand, are locked into their eighth straight losing season and just want September to end. Eduardo Rodriguez has quietly had a strong 2026 — 15-7 with 140 strikeouts through nearly 184 innings — but his pNERD sits at a modest 3.37, dragged down by a lack of swing-and-miss and a velocity that's cratered to 92 mph. Across the mound, Tanner Gordon's shiny ERA doesn't match his xFIP, and his 5.92 pNERD is propped up almost entirely by strong strike-throwing and some batted-ball luck that likely won't hold. Team-wise, this isn't close: Arizona's baserunning and defense give it a respectable 5.51 tNERD, while Colorado's punchless offense and shaky glovework leave it at a league-worst-ish 1.50. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 8.15, comfortably below the historical average of 10.81 and well under today's slate average of 11.79. Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno give Arizona some highlight-reel appeal, but this matchup mostly reads as playoff-race obligation versus lottery-ticket indifference — watch if you're an Arizona fan sweating a wild-card spot, skip otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Arizona Diamondbacks (2.19); radio, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.92)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

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Houston Astros @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

A season-closing scrap between two clubs going nowhere fast, with a genuine race hanging over one side of it. This one clocks in at the bottom of today's watchability barrel — a 4.80 gNERD is well below both the historic median (10.80) and today's average (11.79) — but there's a real playoff stake for Houston, who enter tied atop the AL West after losing four of five, needing wins as their four-game season-ending set at Sacramento begins. Peter Lambert has quietly stabilized Houston's rotation, having allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts, and he's striking out nearly a batter an inning; his 2.88 pNERD reflects modest but real per-year effectiveness. Mason Barnett, by contrast, is a 25-year-old still finding his MLB footing — he's making just his sixth start of the season and was rocked for three earned runs in 3⅓ innings his last time out, and his 126 xFIP- and 1.02 pNERD tell the story of a pitcher without swing-and-miss stuff yet. Both teams carry sub-replacement fielding and baserunning marks, and the Athletics' offense has been thin all year, so don't expect a crisp, tightly-played affair — just meaningful stakes for one dugout and audition innings for the other.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Mason Barnett, Athletics

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  MLB: What to watch on September 23, 2026