MLB: What to watch on September 25, 2026

• 25 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 4:40p

Summary

Cleveland's Gavin Williams is dealing his way through a division race, and this one carries real September stakes. The Guardians roll into Kauffman Stadium a game up in the AL Central with three to play, and Williams has been the reason why — over his last four starts he owns a 1.44 ERA over 25 innings with 40 strikeouts, and his last outing was seven scoreless against the Athletics. His pNERD of 12.85 backs that up, driven by elite whiff and strike rates plus mid-90s-and-up velocity, and it's one of the higher marks you'll see this year (today's pitcher scores top out at 12.85, so he's literally the best arm on the slate). Cameron is a serviceable lefty foil rather than a marquee name — solid in his own right at 9-8 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, with 155 strikeouts, 54 walks and 19 home runs allowed — but his 5.62 pNERD is merely average. Cleveland's bullpen (a real strength) and youth push their tNERD well above Kansas City's, whose bullpen has been a genuine liability. The Royals are playing out the string, but with a division on the line for Cleveland and a true frontline starter on the bump, this one's worth tuning in for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals

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Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox, 2:35p

Summary

Both teams have already clinched playoff spots, so this is a doubleheader nightcap with meaningful baseball but low stakes for standings, and the pitching matchup is more interesting than the win-loss records suggest. David Peterson has quietly turned things around since being dealt to the Cubs, and since coming over to Chicago in June, he's notched a 3.94 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 68 strikeouts over 75.1 innings across 14 starts, backing up his above-average pNERD thanks largely to a favorable xFIP- and a career-best luck reading suggesting more good outings ahead. Bello has been even better lately: over his last 13 appearances he owns a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, with his latest turn his best of the year — eight innings at Tampa Bay, one run, no walks, 11 strikeouts. On the offensive side, Chicago's tNERD is elite thanks to strong batting and fielding runs, while Boston's bullpen has quietly been excellent, though Willson Contreras is sidelined and the Red Sox have scored just 63 runs since September 1st, the lowest mark in MLB. With a gNERD of 14.58 — well above the day's 11.55 average and near the top of the historical range — this is one of today's better watches, even if the standings drama is gone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Boston Red Sox

David Peterson, Chicago Cubs

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, 7:15p

Summary

This one's about Tarik Skubal auditioning for October, not a real contest between the Dodgers and Giants. Los Angeles has already clinched the NL West, and San Francisco is buried at 65-94 with a lineup missing Rafael Devers and several other bodies, so the drama here is almost entirely on the mound.

Skubal is the whole show, and deservedly so — his pNERD of 11.59 is elite, built on a filthy xFIP- of 66 and top-shelf whiff and strike rates. He's scheduled to get his final tune-up for the postseason in the series opener for the Dodgers. Across the plate, rookie Yunior Marte offers essentially the opposite: no track record to speak of, a pNERD of 0.00, and making his fifth major league appearance and third start after allowing six runs in 4 2/3 innings last Friday at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers' 8.94 tNERD (fueled by strong batting and bullpen numbers) dwarfs the Giants' 3.23, and that gap shows up everywhere — fielding, bullpen, barrel rate, all in LA's favor. The 14.39 gNERD sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages, but that's really a Skubal-watching game dressed up as a matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Yunior Marte, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox, 10:05a

Summary

A doubleheader opener that pairs a stacked Cubs roster with a Red Sox team searching for its bats, made a bit more interesting by weather forcing two games into one afternoon. The Cubs bring a tNERD of 10.68 — driven by top-shelf fielding and batting runs — into Fenway, while Boston's 6.81 mark is buoyed almost entirely by its bullpen and some serious bad luck at the plate; Boston has lost four of five and hasn't topped two runs in any of those games, a slump that its 31-run offensive luck score suggests should reverse eventually. Clay Holmes, converted from Mets closer to full-time Cubs starter, is chasing his eighth quality start but was lit up for six runs in his last outing against Cincinnati. Opposite him is Alec Gamboa, a rookie lefty who jumped from Korea's KBO to a sparkling 1.16 ERA in the majors and has never faced the Cubs before. Neither arm posts an eye-popping pNERD, but the combined 13.15 gNERD clears both the historical and today's-slate averages, making this a solidly watchable ballgame rather than a must-see one.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Boston Red Sox

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

Alec Gamboa, Boston Red Sox

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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, 4:10p

Summary

A game with more storyline juice than star power, but Miami's scrappy roster and a hard-throwing young arm give it a pulse. Atlanta has already clinched the division and rolls into loanDepot park with the Braves' TBD starter — likely Grant Holmes or Ray Kerr in a bulk role, hence the 0.00 pNERD placeholder — while Miami trots out 23-year-old Eury Pérez, whose four-seam fastball sits at 98.2 mph, though hitters have posted a .335 xwOBA against it this year. Pérez's pNERD of 7.01 is driven almost entirely by that velocity and his age, but he's been battling more than results suggest lately — he's logged just 27⅓ innings over his last seven appearances with an 8.23 ERA in that stretch, so tonight's stuff may not match his season-long profile. On the team side, Miami's 8.83 tNERD outpaces Atlanta's 5.34 thanks to a young, cheap roster and a baserunning unit that's been quietly effective, while Atlanta's talent is real but somewhat one-note. Historically this gNERD of 13.09 sits comfortably above the all-time median, and it's a bit above today's average slate too — worth a look, especially early, before an unproven Atlanta starter meets the bullpen.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

This is a real one: the Padres just clinched a playoff spot and are jockeying for home-field in the wild-card round, while the Diamondbacks are still fighting for their postseason lives, needing to win two of three here while hoping Philadelphia stumbles. The Padres, fresh off clinching a spot in the 2026 postseason, are heading back home after a series that had been shaping up as a de facto playoff play-in before San Diego's dominant run settled things; Arizona still needs to win two of three while Philadelphia loses two of three to stay alive. San Diego's tNERD of 10.53 is legitimately excellent — well above the 95th percentile historically — driven by a shutdown bullpen and a top-tier fielding unit, plus broadcast crews that actually make the games fun to watch. Arizona's 5.70 is more middling, buoyed by solid baserunning and defense but dragged down by punchless batting. Pfaadt gets the ball for Arizona, and while his overall pNERD (4.11) is unspectacular, there's a fun wrinkle: Brandon Pfaadt held the Padres scoreless over his last 11 2/3 innings against them, though he has not been sharp (4.63 ERA, 4.23 xERA) over the last month. His mound opponent is TBD (likely Casey Mize), who's shaky enough that Arizona's bats — led by a hot Corbin Carroll — could make this one interesting. Overall gNERD of 12.67 sits comfortably above average, worth a look for the stakes alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Pirates-Tigers isn't a marquee matchup, but it's got some nice season-closing subplots and two young power arms worth watching. This is the finale-weekend opener for both clubs, and Pittsburgh has already clinched its first non-losing season in eight years heading into Comerica Park, giving the Pirates something real to play for even in a lost-cause September. Jackson Jobe is the more interesting arm here — he's had Tommy John surgery in the offseason and did not return until August, and his return has been sharp, with his last three starts covering 17.1 innings with 24 strikeouts and four walks. His 92 xFIP- and 97-mph heat back that up, and it shows in his team-best pNERD (7.94, comfortably above today's 5.85 average). Chandler, meanwhile, throws even harder (98.3 mph) but his command is the story — a 111 xFIP- and shaky strike rates cap his upside despite elite stuff and youth (both starters are 23-24). Pittsburgh's tNERD (7.66) is buoyed by a strong bullpen and baserunning, while Detroit's offense-heavy, defense-and-speed-starved roster drags its tNERD down to 3.87. The 12.56 gNERD sits a bit above today's average, mostly on pitching intrigue rather than star power — worth a look, not a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 5:10p

Summary

This one has real playoff stakes, a strikeout milestone on the line, and a battle-tested ace trying to prove he's still got it — worth clearing your schedule for. The Rangers arrive at Target Field tied with Houston at 79-80 in the AL West race, with every remaining game potentially determining whether the Rangers play October baseball, and Texas is trusting the ball to Jacob deGrom in what's being called the most important start deGrom has made for Texas since signing with the team prior to the 2023 season. He's also chasing a personal milestone: four more strikeouts will give him his first 200-strikeout campaign since 2019. His pNERD of 10.95 backs up the hype, driven by elite whiff and xFIP- marks, and his fastball still sits at 97.3 mph at age 38 — genuinely rare for a starter that age. Joe Ryan, opposing him with a respectable 6.09 pNERD, has had rough luck lately; he is looking for his first victory since July 5 against the New York Yankees. Team NERDs are modest for both sides, with Minnesota's shaky defense and bullpen dragging things down, but with playoff urgency and two solid arms, this game's 12.52 gNERD sits comfortably above today's average.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Minnesota Twins

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 1:05p

Summary

Baltimore's playing out the string with genuine stakes for pride if not the postseason, and Trevor Rogers gives them a real reason to tune in even as the Yankees cruise toward the top Wild Card seed. Rogers has been the Orioles' steadiest arm all year, and his pNERD of 6.85 reflects legitimately sharp peripherals—elite strike-throwing and a slider that's been a bat-missing weapon, backing up a season that includes a recent eight-inning, ten-strikeout gem against Milwaukee. His opponent, Brendan Beck, is essentially an unknown quantity: a September call-up with all of 7.2 big-league innings and an 8.22 ERA, hence the pNERD of exactly zero — we simply don't have enough data to judge him, though the early returns (a 1.077 OPS allowed) aren't encouraging. The Yankees own the better tNERD (7.49) thanks to strong barrel rates and baserounding, while Baltimore's own barrel-rate pop (led by a 41-homer Pete Alonso, fresh off torching Toronto) keeps their lineup dangerous even in a lost season. At 12.49, this gNERD sits comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, making the pitching mismatch and Rogers' final tune-up the main draws.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

Brendan Beck, New York Yankees

No detailed stats available

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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

A meaningless-standings game salvaged by a genuinely intriguing lefty and a Nationals lineup that's quietly been fun to watch. Both the Mets and Nationals are long eliminated, but Washington's Andrew Alvarez gives this one some juice — he threw six scoreless innings at St. Louis in his most recent start, and the outing before that allowed one hit over seven scoreless innings against the Angels with eight strikeouts. His 2-6 record is deceiving; the pNERD of 5.67 reflects a tidy xFIP- of 87, and he's basically been the only settled arm in this series — Washington has a confirmed starter while New York does not. That's an actual novelty item: the Mets are rolling out a mystery arm (pNERD sits at zero simply because we don't know who's pitching), which could mean an early bullpen game. On the team side, Washington's 8.09 tNERD comfortably beats New York's 5.51, boosted by excellent baserunning and a young, cheap roster, though a shaky bullpen (Bullpen Runs z-score of -2.27) could turn a tidy Alvarez start into a track meet late. At 12.13, the gNERD sits a bit above the historical average — worth a look, mostly for Alvarez.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:40p

Summary

I have enough info now to write the summary.

A dominant division-winner hosting a team playing out the string — this one's mostly about Milwaukee flexing before October. The Brewers have already clinched the NL Central for the fourth straight year and rolled into this series at 100-59, while St. Louis limps in at 77-82 with, as one preview put it, "the Cardinals are arriving short-handed — three bats on the IL". Milwaukee's tNERD (9.92) is one of the stronger team profiles you'll see, built on legitimately excellent all-around baseball: the Brewers lead the majors with a .258 batting average and score the second-most runs in baseball (815 total, 5.1 per game), and they back that with strong baserunning and a shutdown bullpen. St. Louis, by contrast, is scuffling to a middling 5.71 tNERD, propped up mostly by youth and defense. On the mound, neither Michael McGreevy nor Robert Gasser brings much marquee shine — both post modest pNERD marks in the mid-3s, reflecting fringe strikeout stuff, though Gasser's "8.19 K/9 meets a Cardinals lineup missing three bats", giving him a mild edge. The overall gNERD of 11.55 lands a touch above today's average, worth a look mainly for Milwaukee's offense rather than the pitching matchup.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

Robert Gasser, Milwaukee Brewers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies, 3:40p

Summary

Cristopher Sánchez brings the best pitcher NERD score in this pairing by a wide margin, and Philadelphia's playoff push against a Rays team playing out the string makes this worth a look even if the score sheet won't blow anyone away. Sánchez has been Philadelphia's workhorse all year, sitting at 18-6 with a 2.93 ERA and 221 strikeouts over 200 innings, backed up by an excellent 64 xFIP-, and he even pitched for 50+2⁄3 consecutive scoreless innings this year, the longest such streak ever by a lefty. That performance drives his pNERD to 9.94, comfortably above average for today's slate. Peralta, by contrast, checks in at a modest 3.97, and the concern is real: he's allowed 23 home runs in 163.2 innings with a 1.33 WHIP, giving Schwarber and Harper's power bats plenty of runway. On the team side, neither club stands out — both Rays (4.66) and Phillies (4.42) sit below the historical tNERD average of 5.60, with Philadelphia's offense actually below average despite solid bullpen and baserunning marks. The Phillies are pushing for their playoff spot while Tampa Bay has nothing left to play for standings-wise, which could sap urgency from the Rays' side. Overall gNERD of 11.49 lands a touch above average, mostly on Sánchez's arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Tampa Bay Rays

Philadelphia Phillies

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

Cristopher Sánchez, Philadelphia Phillies

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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 1:10p

Summary

A ceremonial afternoon in the Bronx with modest pitching intrigue, held together by the Yankees' playoff push and a Sabathia tribute. This one's a natural doubleheader curtain-raiser—rescheduled from a nor'easter-postponed Saturday—and comes wrapped in pageantry, with CC Sabathia's number retired and his Monument Park plaque unveiled before first pitch. The Orioles arrive banged up, with Ryan Mountcastle, Tyler O'Neill, Luis Robert Jr., and Jackson Holliday all out, leaving Pete Alonso to carry the offense in his return trip through the AL East after Baltimore poached him from the Mets. On the mound, Brandon Young posts a modest 3.67 pNERD, with his 108 xFIP- suggesting he's more back-of-rotation innings-eater than must-watch arm; his opponent is a TBD with no data to speak of, which tells you the same thing the empty pNERD does. The Yankees' 7.49 tNERD outpaces Baltimore's 5.64, fueled by the game played on September 25, 2026 pitting a barrel-rate-heavy, well-built Yankees roster against a scuffling Orioles club still playing out the string. At 10.90, the gNERD lands right around the historical average—watchable, not essential.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 7:10p

Summary

A season-ending, low-stakes matinee dressed up by a genuinely sharp Reid Detmers start. Both the Angels (61-98) and Mariners (74-85) are playing out the string, but the pitching matchup gives this one more juice than the standings suggest. Detmers has been quietly excellent lately — in four September starts, Detmers has given up eight earned runs over 24 innings and recorded 30 strikeouts — and his 8.06 pNERD (well above today's 5.85 average) reflects a nasty swinging-strike rate and strong xFIP-. Bryce Miller isn't far behind at 6.02, backed by plus velocity and strike-throwing, though his molasses pace works against him. Neither team brings much thump to the table — both squads post ugly fielding and baserunning marks, dragging tNERDs down to 0.70 (Angels) and 2.13 (Mariners), among the weaker team pairings you'll see today. The result is a modest 8.46 gNERD, below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate (11.55). Still, if you want a well-pitched game between two teams playing out meaningless September baseball, the arms make it watchable even if the standings don't.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners

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Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

Skip this one unless you have a soft spot for last-place bat flips and lost causes. The Rockies limp into Rate Field at 57-102 on a four-game losing streak, while the White Sox (82-77) are still scrapping for playoff positioning, and the gNERD of 8.34 sits below the day's 11.55 average, reflecting that mismatch. Colorado's 1.71 tNERD is dragged down by ugly batting and fielding runs, though a modest positive luck score (0.74) suggests they've been slightly unlucky and could be marginally better than they've looked. Chicago's 8.70 tNERD is the night's bright spot, built on a young, cheap roster—the White Sox rank sixth in baseball with 204 homers. On the mound, 36-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano brings a pedestrian 0.81 pNERD with a below-average swinging-strike rate and a slow pace that won't help the watch-clock crowd. Sean Burke is the actual reason to tune in: a 5.47 pNERD fueled by a strong xFIP- of 97, above-average strike rate, and mid-90s velocity from a 26-year-old building his case as Chicago's rotation cornerstone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Colorado Rockies

Chicago White Sox

Tomoyuki Sugano, Colorado Rockies

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Skip this one unless you're deeply invested in September roster auditions. Both the Reds and Blue Jays are long eliminated, playing out the string in a game whose gNERD of 7.11 sits well below both the historical average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.55).

The matchup pairs Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo, whose pNERD of 1.42 reflects a 4.27 ERA with a WHIP of 1.265 and middling strikeout stuff, against an unlisted Toronto starter (reports point to Jose Soriano, but with no data logged here his pNERD reads 0.00). Neither offense is thrilling: Toronto has the eighth-best batting average in MLB (.248) while Cincinnati's .228 mark ranks last, and the Blue Jays are the lowest scoring team in MLB, averaging 4.0 runs per game. Toronto's tNERD (3.49) gets a boost from strong fielding but is dragged down by a weak barrel rate, while Cincinnati's 4.30 leans on youth and power despite a rough overall batting line. Both clubs are eliminated from postseason contention... roster evaluation, prospect auditions, and veteran sendoffs all come into focus — which is about the most compelling case for tuning in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Cincinnati Reds

Toronto Blue Jays

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

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Houston Astros @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

A late-season AL West race backdrop can't rescue a game that's fundamentally short on juice. The Astros are chasing the division crown on the final weekend, tied with the Rangers atop the AL West as they visit a listless Athletics club that's already 33 games under .500. Hunter Brown, an All-Star this year, brings real swing-and-miss stuff and a fastball touching 96, and his sub-1 xFIP- component reflects genuinely strong underlying numbers even though his last outing against Seattle was a mess — five walks and eight baserunners in five innings. Jacob Lopez, on the other hand, is the definition of replacement-level, with a career 4.95 ERA and a woeful xFIP- that tanks his pNERD to a near-zero 0.38; his own recent run of good results (two runs or fewer in seven straight starts) looks more like fortune than skill. Both teams post modest tNERD marks bogged down by shaky fielding and baserunning, with Oakland's putrid glovework (fielding z-score of -1.71) particularly ugly. At a 6.07 gNERD, this sits below both the historical middle and well under today's slate average of 11.55 — watch for Brown's stuff, skip the rest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Jacob Lopez, Athletics

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