MLB: What to watch on September 26, 2026

• 26 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, 1:10p

Summary

This game is a mismatch of stakes wrapped in a Marlins tank-mode curiosity, but the Ralston debut and Suter's knuckleball-slow theatrics give it some juice. Atlanta has already clinched the NL East for the first time since 2023 and locked up a playoff spot, so the Braves are coasting into October while Miami plays out the string near .500. The Marlins, though, have quietly been the more watchable team by the numbers — Marlins hitters have an OBP of .332 against RHP this season, and a groundball batting average of .282 this season, both among the league's best — and their tNERD of 9.13 (youth, thrift, and a scrappy baserunning game) dwarfs Atlanta's more veteran, higher-priced 5.08. On the mound, 37-year-old Brent Suter, working as an emergency starter after mostly relieving, brings his molasses-paced delivery and grounder-heavy profile for a tidy 7.46 pNERD. Opposite him is Jack Ralston, making his first start of the season for Miami — total mystery box, hence the flat 0.00 pNERD. With a 13.34 gNERD, this sits comfortably above today's 10.31 average, worth a look if only to see how the rookie handles his moment.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

Brent Suter, Atlanta Braves

Jack Ralston, Miami Marlins

No detailed stats available

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, 1:05p

Summary

A dominant Cy Young winner making a playoff-readiness tune-up start against a last-place club playing out the string — this one's mostly about watching Blake Snell, not the final score. The gNERD of 13.29 sits well above both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate average (10.31), driven almost entirely by the pitching mismatch. Snell, fresh off exiting his last start early with groin discomfort, returns with a 9.56 pNERD (near the top of today's range) fueled by elite strikeout stuff — his 4-1 record with a 1.86 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings and a filthy swinging-strike rate. He's looking to prove he's healthy and deserving of a spot in the postseason rotation rather than pile up innings, so don't expect a complete-game clinic. Across from him, rookie Matt Wilkinson has no pNERD data but has quietly been effective, having thrown five scoreless innings against this Dodgers lineup on 76 pitches six days ago. Team-wise, it's lopsided — LA's 8.93 tNERD dwarfs San Francisco's 3.09, and the Giants are 65-95, fourth in the division, and have lost 10 of its last 13. Watch for Snell's stuff, not the standings.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers

Matt Wilkinson, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

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St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 4:10p

Summary

Milwaukee's already popped the champagne on the division, but that doesn't mean this one's meaningless — it's the last look at Dustin May before October, and the underlying numbers say he's better than his line suggests. The Brewers, owners of the best team-NERD score of anyone playing today, have clinched their fourth straight NL Central title and a first-round bye, and it shows in the profile: a lineup with real pop, plus a bullpen and baserunning game that both grade out well above average. May, acquired from St. Louis at the deadline in a bit of irony given today's opponent, has had a rough September on the results side, but the recent line scores matter more than the strong overall numbers — his velocity is elite and his xFIP suggests he's due for better luck. Mathews, a rookie lefty, carries a 3.65 ERA over 44.1 innings and has been excellent lately, with three straight quality starts, though his NERD components (thin strike rate) are unspectacular. At 13.07, this game grades above today's 10.31 average and comfortably above the historical median, largely on the strength of Milwaukee's tNERD — one of the more well-rounded rosters on the schedule, even in a game that otherwise carries little playoff stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Quinn Mathews, St. Louis Cardinals

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 5:40p

Summary

A win-or-else game with real playoff stakes, even if the pitching matchup is a bit of a mystery box. Arizona rolls into Petco riding a six-game winning streak and fighting for its postseason life, while San Diego is still trying to nail down the top NL Wild Card spot after dropping the series opener 11-4. Complicating things: Corbin Burnes just landed on the injured list, leaving the Diamondbacks without a starter and likely turning to a bullpen game — hence the TBD and its inevitable 0.00 pNERD. Walker Buehler takes the ball for the Padres instead, and while his strikeout stuff has faded (weak swinging-strike rate drags his component into negative territory), his xFIP- sits right at league average and his 4.56 pNERD gets a boost from some bad luck that could turn. San Diego's tNERD of 10.49 is well above the 95th percentile threshold, powered by an elite bullpen and one of the better broadcast booths in baseball. Add it up and the 12.96 gNERD clears today's average comfortably — a legitimately watchable game, mystery starter and all, especially with October implications on the line.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Walker Buehler, San Diego Padres

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New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 9:35a

Summary

Both the Mets and Nationals are playing out the string, but there's a genuinely fun subplot on the mound worth catching. Jonah Tong, still just 23 and finding his footing, has been inconsistent since his September call-up, with a 1-1 record and 4.60 ERA over his last four starts, though he's flashed real swing-and-miss stuff along the way. Across from him, Connelly Early makes his Nationals debut after not facing a major league hitter since June 30, dealing with elbow inflammation in July and a forearm setback in his recovery, a solid debut storyline for a team that paired one of the most potent offenses in the majors with one of the weakest rotations. Washington's tNERD (8.26) comfortably outpaces New York's (5.56), fueled by strong baserunning and a young, cheap roster, though a shaky bullpen drags it back down. Neither arm rates as a marquee pNERD performer, but both are young with age boosting their scores, and the strikeout/whiff data suggests occasional swing-and-miss appeal from Tong. With a gNERD of 11.66, this sits a bit above the historic median and roughly in line with today's slate average — not appointment viewing, but a decent watch for the two rookie-ish arms alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Jonah Tong, New York Mets

Connelly Early, Washington Nationals

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies, 4:15p

Summary

The Rays have clinched everything, the Phillies are scrapping for a Wild Card, and this game is mostly a formality dressed up as playoff prep. Tampa Bay has already wrapped up the AL East and the AL's top seed, and their offense has been quiet lately, having "modest anyway" offense, scoring twice in Friday's game and going 6-4 over its previous 10. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is fighting for its playoff life, sitting in the final Wild Card spot and coming off a stretch where "the Phillies have scored only two runs during their current two-game losing streak"—not exactly a lineup peaking at the right time. The Phillies' starter is unannounced, which drags down the pitching side of this equation considerably. Griffin Jax is the reason to tune in early: he's coming off two straight scoreless outings since returning from the injured list, and his peripherals (strong strikeout rate, low xFIP-) back up the eye test. With a pNERD near 8—well above today's average of 4.98—Jax alone nudges this game above the pack. Overall gNERD of 10.89 sits just above the historical median, buoyed almost entirely by pitching intrigue rather than lineup firepower, given both teams' middling batting profiles this year.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Tampa Bay Rays

Philadelphia Phillies

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Here's the story here, and it's got nothing to do with the numbers: this is Justin Verlander's final career start, and the Pirates counter with 39-year-old Kirby Yates making his first (and possibly only) start of the season—so buckle up for a farewell tour, not a pitching clinic. Verlander hasn't faced hitters in a game since June, his lone appearance this season lasted less than four innings, and his career line reads an unsightly 0-1 with an ERA north of 12—hardly the stuff of NERD legend, hence the pNERD goose-egg. Yates, working as bullpen-game opener for a so-so Pittsburgh relief corps, isn't walking in with much stuff-based hype either. Both pitcher scores land at zero simply because there's no real statistical projection for what amounts to ceremonial and improvised outings. The gNERD of 10.70 sits almost exactly at the historical median and slightly above today's average, propped up almost entirely by the Pirates' tNERD (7.53)—strong bullpen and baserunning numbers—against a middling Tigers squad (3.87) that's hot at the plate lately, ranking fourth in OPS this month. Watch this one for the sentimental send-off, not the stat line.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers

Kirby Yates, Pittsburgh Pirates

No detailed stats available

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

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Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10p

Summary

Cleveland's playing for a division title and a first-round bye, while Kansas City is mathematically eliminated and just trying not to embarrass itself in front of the home crowd — that stakes imbalance is the whole story here. This is the middle game of a three-game season-ending series, and Friday's opener was a wild one: Cleveland won the series opener 12-9, scoring five runs in the ninth inning aided by six walks from Kansas City relievers, while Royals catcher Carter Jensen homered twice and drove in a career-high five runs in the loss. That bullpen leakiness is a running theme — the Royals' pen grades out brutally in the underlying numbers, dragging Kansas City's tNERD down to 4.44, well below today's 5.33 average, even though Wacha has a 2.93 ERA at home this season, giving him the higher pNERD of the two starters at 4.22. Bibee, by contrast, is scuffling — that's actually a league-average pitcher at best, and it's trending in the wrong direction since the break, with Bibee's ERA sitting between a 4.02 and 4.79 estimator range — and his 2.68 pNERD reflects it. The 9.11 gNERD lands below the historic median, so this isn't essential viewing, but Cleveland's playoff stakes and a shaky Royals pen make a late blowup plausible.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals

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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 1:10p

Summary

Two teams playing out the string in a lost season find some juice from Nathan Eovaldi, who's quietly been the best thing going in this series. There's no pennant race drama here — the Rangers and Twins are both finishing well outside the postseason picture, so don't expect playoff intensity, just craftsmen doing craftsman things.

Eovaldi, at 36 and still humming it in around 94 mph, is the reason to tune in: his xFIP- of 85 and strong swinging-strike and strike-throwing rates push his pNERD to 7.76, comfortably above today's slate average, and his positive luck score suggests his solid results haven't even fully caught up to how well he's actually pitching. Bailey Ober, by contrast, brings a well-below-average fastball and an xFIP- north of 117, translating to a modest 2.21 pNERD — home half of a discount doubleheader. Team-wise, neither Rangers (4.86 tNERD) nor Twins (3.26) bring much thump; both are below-average on the basepaths and defensively shaky, with Minnesota's fielding runs a particular sore spot. The overall gNERD of 9.04 lands below both the historic and today's averages — watch for Eovaldi, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Minnesota Twins

Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins

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Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

Both teams are already eliminated, and this one leans on curiosity value more than stakes. Elly De La Cruz's Reds have been a season-long highlight reel—he just became the fourth player in franchise history to go 30-30, joining Eric Davis, Barry Larkin, and Brandon Phillips—so watching him is reason enough to tune in even with Cincinnati sitting fifth in the NL Central. The pitching matchup, though, is lopsided on paper: Rhett Lowder carries a rough year and has been especially bad lately, having allowed 21 earned runs in his last four turns, while Trey Yesavage—Toronto's prized rookie—is still working back from knee surgery and has looked sharp in his return. Yesavage's stuff (a strong swinging-strike rate and a tidy xFIP-) earns the higher pNERD of the two by a clear margin, and his age (22) and deception give him real long-term intrigue even in a short outing. Team-wise neither club stands out — Toronto's putrid barrel rate drags its offense down despite plus defense, and Cincinnati's bullpen has been shaky, as Friday's meltdown showed. Combined, an 8.51 gNERD lands below both the historical and today's averages — watchable for the De La Cruz chase and Yesavage's return, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Cincinnati Reds

Toronto Blue Jays

Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds

Trey Yesavage, Toronto Blue Jays

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Houston Astros @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

I'll write the summary using the information gathered so far.

Two teams playing out the string, but a couple of arms worth checking in on. Both the Astros (77-79) and Athletics (61-94) are eliminated from playoff contention, and this late-September get-together in Sacramento carries all the stakes of a scrimmage — the gNERD of 7.74 sits below both the historical median (10.8) and today's slate average (10.31), so temper expectations accordingly.

Houston's Hayden Wesneski is reportedly making what's expected to be his final regular-season start, capping an encouraging run for the right-hander, though his profile is built on soft contact and command rather than swing-and-miss dominance, which tracks with his modest 3.48 pNERD. The Athletics' Jack Perkins is the more interesting watch: his 6.34 pNERD is well above today's average of 4.98, fueled by a lively 95.7 mph fastball and strong swing-and-miss rate, though he's carrying a hefty positive luck score, suggesting his results have been better than his peripherals — so don't be shocked if the stuff looks better than the line. Neither team brings much thump — Houston's tNERD (2.97) and Oakland's (2.70) both sit well below average, weighed down by shaky fielding and baserunning on both sides. If you're chasing star power or playoff drama, look elsewhere; if you like scouting a hard-throwing arm on a bad team, Perkins is the reason to tune in.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Hayden Wesneski, Houston Astros

Jack Perkins, Athletics

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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Kade Anderson is the reason to tune in here, not the standings. The Mariners' prized rookie lefty—LSU ace, third overall pick in 2025—continues his fast track to relevance, and his 9.28 pNERD is among the best marks in today's slate, driven by plus strikeout and strike-throwing numbers and, at just 21, a age component that's off the charts. Seattle's rotation has otherwise been slumping hard over the last two months, so Anderson's electric debut stuff arrives at a convenient time, even if he's still working out the kinks against MLB lineups. Across the diamond, Angels rookie Ryan Johnson (pNERD 3.12) offers a much shakier proposition—his xFIP- sits well above average, propped up mostly by his youth and a slow pace. Team-wise, this isn't a showcase: both clubs rank near the bottom of today's tNERD range, with the Angels dragged down by poor fielding and baserunning and the Mariners not much better outside of some positive regression-forecasting luck. The 7.64 gNERD lands in the lower quartile historically, so watch for Anderson's arm, not for the overall product around him.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Ryan Johnson, Los Angeles Angels

Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners

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Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox, 4:10p

Summary

Colorado's a rebuilding disaster, Chicago's a team surging into the playoffs, and Jose Quintana's pNERD score suggests you'd get more entertainment value watching paint dry. This one's mostly about narrative gulf rather than baseball drama. The White Sox, locked into a playoff spot and looking to finish strong, have a spot in the American League playoffs assured but seeding still to be determined, and wins in five of the past six games entering Saturday show that Chicago is surging as the regular season concludes. Their tNERD of 8.58 is well above the historic 75th percentile, buoyed by a young, cheap roster that hits and fields better than average. Colorado, by contrast, sits at a miserable 1.71 tNERD, dragged down by poor batting, fielding, and barrel rates - fitting for a team already sitting at 57-102.

On the mound, Quintana is the story nobody wants to watch: at 37, he's made just 10 starts in his first season with Colorado amid injuries to his right hamstring and left elbow, and he's walking exactly 9% of batters faced for the second consecutive season while rocking a career-low 11.1 K%. His -2.48 pNERD is well below average. Davis Martin offers more hope, pitching effectively down the stretch with an 0.89 ERA in four September starts, though he's still hunting his first win since June. With a gNERD of 6.10, sitting below both the historic and today's averages, this is a game to skip unless you're already invested in a White Sox playoff run.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Colorado Rockies

Chicago White Sox

Jose Quintana, Colorado Rockies

Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox

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  MLB: What to watch on September 25, 2026