MLB: What to watch on September 27, 2026

• 27 September 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers, 12:10p

Summary

A rocket-armed Cy Young favorite closing out a division-clinching season against a fading, already-eliminated Cardinals team who simply cannot hit him — this is appointment viewing for the pitching, if not the drama. Jacob Misiorowski brings the highest pNERD score in today's slate by a wide margin (15.04, against a 5.10 average), fueled by a filthy 53 xFIP-, a strikeout rate that's off the charts, and triple-digit velocity that averages 100.6 mph. He's the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award, though he's expected to be on a limited pitch count for the second consecutive start as Milwaukee manages him heading into the postseason. The Cardinals simply have no answer for him — Pallante is 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in 17 career games against Milwaukee, including five starts, and 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers this season. Milwaukee's tNERD (10.07) ranks near the top of today's games too, built on strong batting, baserunning, and bullpen marks, while St. Louis limps in with a middling offense and a three-game skid. The gNERD of 17.56 sits well above both the historical and today's averages — mostly because one pitcher is must-watch, even if the outcome feels like a formality.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)

St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers

Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals

Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers

Go back to top of page

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox, 12:05p

Summary

Season finale weirdness alone makes this worth a look, even if both teams are basically playing out the string with their eyes on October. A nor'easter forced this Cubs-Red Sox game 162 out of Fenway and down to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, with the storm forcing Boston and Chicago to play the finale down at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg on Sunday afternoon. Both clubs have already clinched playoff spots, so managers are prioritizing health over intensity — the Cubs are headed to San Diego for the first round, so the only concerns are staying healthy and not burning key pitchers. The pitching matchup adds intrigue: Tanner Houck is making his first major-league start since May 2025, a notable return from injury, though we simply don't have statistical data to grade him yet (pNERD of 0). Shota Imanaga, by contrast, brings real deception to the table, backed by a strong xFIP- and an above-average swinging-strike rate. The Cubs' tNERD (10.49) is well above today's 5.64 average, riding standout fielding and batting runs, while Boston's bullpen and some positive regression (Luck: 1.42) keep them respectable. With a gNERD of 14.42 comfortably above both the historical and today's averages, this exhibition-flavored finale still rates as one of the day's more watchable games — Ian Happ chasing a franchise home run milestone doesn't hurt either.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Boston Red Sox

Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers, 12:10p

Summary

A meaningful finale with an ace on the mound makes this one worth your Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh closes the regular season at Comerica Park needing just one win for its first winning record in eight years, and they're sending out the right arm to do it: Jared Jones is 5-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 118 strikeouts on the season, but across four September starts he owns a 1.08 ERA with 35 strikeouts against four walks in 25 innings, including a start where he threw seven innings, one hit, no runs, nine strikeouts, no walks. His 10.66 pNERD - built on mid-90s-plus velocity, a strong whiff rate, and youth - is comfortably above both the historic and today's-slate averages. Opposite him is River Ryan, who arrives with zero data behind him, so treat his outing as a genuine unknown. Pittsburgh's tNERD (7.51) is buoyed by strong bullpen work and baserunning, while Detroit's is more middling with shaky fielding and a leaky pen missing several relievers to injury. Add in a tight recent series - Detroit's taken the first two, one on a walk-off - and you've got a gNERD of 13.58, solidly above average for today's games and historically, with actual stakes attached.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Detroit Tigers

Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates

River Ryan, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres, 12:10p

Summary

Season finale with real playoff stakes and a pitching mismatch worth tuning in for. The Diamondbacks arrive at Petco Park one game behind Philadelphia for the final wild card with the tiebreaker in hand, meaning Arizona needs a win (and some help) to keep its season alive, while the Padres have already clinched the top spot in the NL wild card with a strong finish to the regular season. That contrast in stakes shows up in the tNERD gap too — San Diego's 10.66 is one of the stronger team scores you'll see today, boosted by top-tier bullpen and fielding marks, while Arizona's 5.83 is more middling. On the mound, Michael Soroka has been the story of the week: he threw seven innings of one-run ball at Colorado on September 22 with nine strikeouts, then allowed one run over five against Miami on September 15, and his 6.23 pNERD (driven by a stingy xFIP-) reflects that form. Randy Vásquez, by contrast, has worked out of the bullpen quite a bit in the second half of the season, and his pNERD sits below-average at 3.47. With a 13.09 gNERD, this one lands comfortably above the historic median — a legitimate deadline-day watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Arizona Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres

Michael Soroka, Arizona Diamondbacks

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

Go back to top of page

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals, 10:05a

Summary

A meaningless season finale that still has a genuinely interesting pitching story attached to it. Both clubs are well out of the playoff picture, but DJ Herz's return gives this game a pulse worth watching even as the standings mean nothing.

Herz is making his first major league appearance since September 2024, completing a two-year road back from Tommy John surgery, and his solitary big-league line this year came in a rough four-inning outing against Detroit. His pNERD sits at zero simply because there isn't enough of a sample to grade him, but the storyline of a 25-year-old lefty trying to prove he belongs in the 2027 rotation is worth tuning in for on its own. Manaea, by contrast, is a known commodity chasing his 6.31 pNERD with a good final line — he takes the ball at 6-7 with a 4.67 ERA, and in his most recent start he threw six innings against Texas, allowed two earned runs, walked two and struck out nine, snapping a rough stretch. His command (elite strike rate, slow pace) props up the number despite pedestrian velocity. Washington's tNERD (8.05) actually outshines the Mets' thanks to youth and aggressive baserunning, though a shaky bullpen drags it back down. At 12.51, the gNERD lands comfortably above average — a decent way to close out the year.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

New York Mets

Washington Nationals

Sean Manaea, New York Mets

DJ Herz, Washington Nationals

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants, 12:05p

Summary

Season finale theater with a top-strength Dodgers lineup, but don't expect much traditional starting pitching drama — both teams are treating this like the bullpen game it is. The Dodgers arrive at 99-62 and one win away from their first 100-win season since 2023, having just swept this same series, and manager Dave Roberts is running out an essentially full-strength lineup — Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Tucker and company — one day before the postseason begins. Jack Dreyer technically "starts" but is expected to go roughly an inning before the bullpen takes over, and his 7.12 pNERD (driven by a sharp 82 xFIP- and strong whiff rate) reflects a genuinely good reliever-turned-opener rather than a workhorse. Across the mound, Carson Seymour has been feasted upon this season and lately by these Dodgers — the Dodgers have scored just one run over three innings against him in three meetings this year — and his 0.00 pNERD simply reflects a lack of usable starter data given he's pitched all in relief. The Giants, at 65-96 and playing out the string, add little juice: a middling tNERD of 3.19 against LA's robust 9.01, boosted mostly by strong bullpen runs and Dodgers-favorable luck. It's Oracle Park's last hurrah of the year, complete with a Mike Krukow broadcast farewell, but on the field this is mostly ceremonial — a 12.16 gNERD that's solidly average, elevated by the Dodgers' quality more than any real pitching matchup or playoff stakes.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco Giants

Jack Dreyer, Los Angeles Dodgers

Carson Seymour, San Francisco Giants

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals, 12:10p

Summary

Cleveland's already clinched, Messick has a Division Series date circled, and Kansas City is just playing out the string—yet this regular-season finale still has some juice thanks to a genuinely excellent rookie lefty and a Royals lineup that keeps hitting despite themselves.

The Guardians locked up the AL Central on Saturday, and while Cleveland's bats have been merely average, their bullpen and defense round out a solid 7.24 tNERD. Kansas City's 4.30 tNERD is dragged down almost entirely by a bullpen that's been one of the league's worst, though positive batting luck suggests their offense has been better than the raw numbers show. The real draw is Parker Messick, whose 8.32 pNERD reflects a season 2.55 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP over 183.1 innings across 31 starts, with elite strikeout stuff and a young age boosting his profile. There's a wrinkle worth knowing: reports suggest Messick is also Cleveland's Game 1 starter for the Division Series on Saturday, Oct. 3, and an arm lined up to open a playoff series does not go deep in a meaningless finale, so don't expect a complete-game showcase. Daniel Lynch IV, by contrast, profiles as replacement-level with a middling 3.51 pNERD. At 11.68 gNERD, this sits a shade above the historical median—watchable mostly for Messick's final tune-up before October.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

Daniel Lynch IV, Kansas City Royals

Go back to top of page

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies, 11:30a

Summary

A season finale with actual stakes: the Phillies need this one to breathe easy into October, and they're trotting out Zack Wheeler to make sure of it. Wheeler owns the highest pNERD in this matchup by a wide margin, backed by a sharp xFIP- of 72 that suggests his surface numbers understate just how nasty he's been, and he's been especially locked in at home. The stakes are real: Philadelphia is locked into the third National League Wild Card spot mathematically but still hasn't officially clinched, with a magic number stuck at two heading into this finale, after Tampa Bay dropped a shutout and a 12-1 blowout on them the previous two games. The Rays, meanwhile, have already wrapped up the AL East and the top overall seed in the American League, playing with total freedom — their tNERD gets a boost from strong baserunning and a payroll well below expectations for a juggernaut. Nick Martinez has quietly had a fine year, but a low strikeout rate caps his pNERD at a modest 3.46. Both team offenses carry some warts, but with a contending club fighting for its playoff life against a stuff-heavy ace, this one clears the average gNERD bar for the day and offers a legitimate reason to tune in beyond the numbers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Tampa Bay Rays

Philadelphia Phillies

Nick Martinez, Tampa Bay Rays

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Go back to top of page

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins, 12:10p

Summary

A meaningless season finale between a Braves team already locked into the playoffs and a Marlins squad playing out the string — this one's for the truly devoted only. Atlanta clinched the NL East weeks ago and opens a Wild Card Series days from now, so this is a tune-up, not a statement, while Miami finishes at 79-81 with nothing on the line either. The Marlins actually carry the better team NERD (9.25 vs. 5.12), boosted by strong baserunning, a young low-payroll roster, and some positive regression luck after underperforming their run differential most of the year. On the mound, rookie JR Ritchie brings a lively 94.5 mph fastball but has walked hitters at an alarming rate — he carries a 1-4 record and a 4.79 ERA, having walked 40 batters in just 67.2 innings — control issues that have hurt him against contact-oriented lineups all year. Janson Junk counters as the classic innings-eating control artist — he's not a strikeout pitcher, but his calling card is exceptional command, with 32 walks in 119 innings translating to a 2.42 BB/9. Both pitcher NERDs sit below league average, and with a gNERD of 10.04 landing right around the historical median, this is a background game at best.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Atlanta Braves (2.36); radio, Atlanta Braves (2.36)

Atlanta Braves

Miami Marlins

JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

Go back to top of page

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees, 10:05a

Summary

Season finale meets meaningless-game energy, but there's a novelty angle worth a look: a 22-year-old Yankees pitching prospect making one of his final tune-up starts before October. This is the last game of the regular season, and neither team has much on the line — the Yankees have secured their wild card position, giving this game a different kind of weight — the Yankees are playing to sharpen, not to survive, while the Orioles are closing out a season that promised more than it delivered at 19 games back. New York turns to top prospect Elmer Rodriguez, the 22-year-old right-hander, whose pNERD sits low mostly due to a rough xFIP-, though his age and velocity give him some intrigue as a look at the Yankees' pipeline. Baltimore counters with Shane Baz, who enters with a 6-15 record, a 4.11 ERA, and 154 strikeouts, but has a career 0-3 mark with a 6.48 ERA against New York over eight prior starts — history is not on his side. Both offenses carry real thump — Baltimore's barrel rate and bullpen numbers give it a respectable tNERD, and the Yankees' barrel rate is even better — but with a gNERD of 9.20, this sits below the historic average of 10.81 and below today's slate average of 10.72, making it a fine background game rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

Elmer Rodríguez, New York Yankees

Go back to top of page

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins, 12:10p

Summary

A game 162 win-and-in scenario for the Rangers gives this finale more juice than the NERD math alone suggests. Texas needs a win plus an Astros loss to snatch the AL West, which is the kind of stakes that make even a middling matchup worth flipping on. Beyond that drama, though, this is a pretty ordinary offering — gNERD of 9.20 sits below the historic average (10.81) and near the bottom of today's slate. The Twins' tNERD (3.21) is dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning, while Texas (5.05) gets a boost mostly from positive regression luck rather than a clearly superior roster; Texas is also playing shorthanded with Josh Jung out with a broken hand. On the mound, Gore (5.28 pNERD) brings a lively fastball (95.2 mph) and solid whiff rate, though his control has wobbled — one preview flagged his recent volatility as a scoring risk. Kremer (4.86 pNERD) counters with a bit of positive regression looming behind a 98 xFIP-, but neither arm is a marquee name. Watch for the Astros scoreboard as much as the game itself.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Texas Rangers (2.08)

Texas Rangers

Minnesota Twins

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

Dean Kremer, Minnesota Twins

Go back to top of page

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox, 12:10p

Summary

A meaningless matinee between a lost-cause Rockies team and a White Sox club just playing out the string, but there's a tidy silver lining: Chicago's actually been fun to watch all year. Colorado enters at a miserable 58-103, and their tNERD of 1.52 reflects it — a lineup that's been comfortably below average in both batting runs and fielding, though a modest positive luck score suggests they've somehow underperformed even that. The White Sox, by contrast, post a robust 8.48 tNERD, buoyed by a young, cheap roster that's outhit its payroll all season. On the mound, it's a lefty-lefty clash of the underwhelming: Anthony Kay starts for Chicago with a 9-9 record and a 4.53 ERA, while Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland at 4-11 with a 6.58 ERA. Kay has not reached the sixth inning in any of his last six starts, and Freeland's strong strike-throwing gets undercut by his diminished velocity. Freeland's positive luck score hints his real numbers are even worse than they look. At 8.71, this gNERD sits well below today's 10.72 average — watch only if you've got nothing better on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago White Sox (1.82); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Colorado Rockies

Chicago White Sox

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

Go back to top of page

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners, 12:10p

Summary

A season finale with basically nothing on the line, salvaged only by Logan Gilbert pitching like he means it. This is literally the last game of the 2026 season for both clubs, with the Mariners already eliminated and the Angels extending the longest active playoff drought in baseball after a lost 62-99 campaign. Gilbert has quietly had a strong year — his 7.94 pNERD is comfortably above average, built on plus velocity, a hefty whiff rate, and an xFIP- of 85 that's well ahead of his listed ERA — and he owns the day's best strikeout stuff by a wide margin. Kikuchi, by contrast, is finishing a rough age-35 season and gets to the mound more via veteran savvy than dominant peripherals, though his fastball still sits mid-90s. Both teams are dragging: Seattle's tNERD of 2.17 and the Angels' 0.66 both sit well below the seasonal average, driven largely by ugly fielding and baserunning numbers on both sides. With a 7.46 gNERD, this checks in below both the historic and today's-slate averages — watch for Gilbert's final start of the year, not for playoff stakes or offensive fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Seattle Mariners (2.52)

Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Go back to top of page

Houston Astros @ Athletics, 12:05p

Summary

A modest tilt between two teams playing out the string, elevated only slightly by the pitching matchup's novelty. The Astros enter with a losing record after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016, while the Athletics have been arguably the league's worst team, and neither club brings much juice into this one. The 2026 Houston Astros finished 77–78, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016, ending an eight-consecutive-playoff-appearance streak. The Athletics' brutal season speaks for itself, and that shows up in the tNERD numbers — both clubs sit below average, with Houston's shaky baserunning and fielding and Oakland's weak bat and glove work dragging things down further. Peter Lambert offers modest intrigue with a passable xFIP- but a plodding pace that saps some watchability; Seth Johnson, a former first-round arm who's bounced between organizations, arrives without enough of a track record here to grade, which itself is a small mystery worth tuning in for. At a 6.78 gNERD, this lands well below the historic average of 10.81 and near the bottom of today's slate — a game for completionists rather than must-watch television.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Houston Astros (1.99)

Houston Astros

Athletics

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

Seth Johnson, Athletics

No detailed stats available

Go back to top of page

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07p

Summary

A meaningless season finale between two teams that will forget this game happened, but it comes wrapped in genuine sentiment: this could be Max Scherzer's last big-league start, and possibly George Springer's too. Both Toronto (78-83) and Cincinnati (75-86) are long eliminated, and the on-field product reflects it — Scherzer is 3-9 with a 6.14 ERA heading into the game, working on short rest after throwing 93 pitches over five innings just four days earlier in Baltimore. His pNERD of 0.88 is barely above replacement, propped up mostly by lucky variance rather than actual stuff — his xFIP- of 130 is well below average. Williamson isn't much better, sporting a -0.68 pNERD thanks to shaky command (his strike rate and swinging-strike numbers both come in below league average). Neither team's offense inspires much confidence either — Cincinnati's .229 team batting average ranks last in the majors, though Toronto's fielding and bullpen numbers give it a slight edge in tNERD. At a gNERD of 4.00, this ranks near the bottom of today's slate and well below the historical average. Watch for the emotional send-off, not the baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Cincinnati Reds

Toronto Blue Jays

Brandon Williamson, Cincinnati Reds

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

Go back to top of page

• ← Previous
  MLB: What to watch on September 26, 2026