MLB: What to watch on September 29, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.5 | 5:00p | Boston Red Sox | 6.8 | New York Yankees | 7.1 | Payton Tolle | 10.1 | Cam Schlittler | 10.8 |
| 15.1 | 11:00a | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.4 | Atlanta Braves | 5.1 | Jesús Luzardo | 10.6 | Chris Sale | 10.1 |
| 14.6 | 7:00p | Chicago Cubs | 10.7 | San Diego Padres | 10.8 | Matthew Boyd | 4.1 | Michael King | 3.6 |
| 13.6 | 2:00p | Chicago White Sox | 8.6 | Houston Astros | 3.1 | Hagen Smith | 10.5 | AJ Blubaugh | No data |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees, 5:00p
Summary
Excellent stuff here. This is a Wild Card Game 1, with great storylines. Let me write the summary.
This is the marquee matchup of the day: a winner-take-all-adjacent Wild Card Series opener between the Yankees and Red Sox, featuring two of the best young arms in the sport. Cam Schlittler is fresh off emerging as the ace on the Yankees roster while Gerrit Cole was recovering from Tommy John surgery, and last October he was the one who dominated the Red Sox in the decisive Game 3 that ended Boston's season — so there's real revenge-narrative fuel here. Boston counters with rookie lefty Payton Tolle, who has gone 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA against the Yankees this season, striking out 18 and holding New York to a .093 average in two starts. The stat lines back up the hype: Schlittler's xFIP- sits at an elite 69, and his fastball is averaging near 98 mph, giving him the highest pNERD score of any pitcher in today's slate; Tolle isn't far behind thanks to a filthy strikeout rate and a knack for pounding the zone. Add in Boston's bullpen, which ranks well above average and has been surprisingly unlucky this year (suggesting more R Sox breaks could be coming), against a Yankees lineup peppered with hard, barreled contact, and you've got a game that checks every box — playoff stakes, dueling flamethrowers, and a rivalry with real bite. Both today's and historical NERD rankings agree: this is about as good as it gets.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)
Boston Red Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -9.6 | 7.3% | -2.6 | 16.5 | 75.0 | $263.6M | 29.2 | 32.0 | 2.47 | 2.64 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.19 | -0.40 | -0.47 | 0.64 | 1.49 | 0.70 | 0.17 | 1.40 | 0.16 | 0.54 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.19 | -0.40 | -0.47 | 0.64 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 4.00 | 6.83 |
New York Yankees
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 8.1 | 9.5% | 3.7 | 3.3 | 40.7 | $337.1M | 29.9 | -33.0 | 2.08 | 2.22 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.24 | 1.90 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 1.54 | 0.85 | -1.44 | -0.61 | -0.36 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.24 | 1.90 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 7.13 |
Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 86 | 13.6% | 69.1% | 95.7 mph | 23 | 17.9s | -15 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.95 | 1.43 | 2.24 | 0.68 | -1.42 | -1.00 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.90 | 0.72 | 1.12 | 0.68 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.13 |
Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 13.9% | 66.9% | 98.0 mph | 25 | 21.4s | -22 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.97 | 1.57 | 1.30 | 1.70 | -0.90 | 1.89 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.94 | 0.79 | 0.65 | 1.70 | 0.90 | -0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.83 |
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves, 11:00a
Summary
This is playoff baseball, and it comes with a genuinely great pitching matchup to boot. This is Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series, and it's got real drama attached: Chris Sale has been on an absurd run, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 24 consecutive starts, a franchise record, and he'll be squaring off against a Phillies lineup that's "the opponent least equipped to punish that." Luzardo, meanwhile, is returning from a stint on the injured list with left shoulder inflammation, and Philadelphia is easing him in as an opener rather than a full-length starter, with rookie Andrew Painter and the rest of the bullpen on standby to piece together the rest of the game. That's a genuine subplot: a shorthanded Phillies staff trying to out-scheme a healthy Atlanta rotation.
The NERD math backs up the hype. Both starters grade out as elite by the underlying/xFIP-driven components — Sale and Luzardo are both around 10 pNERD, comfortably above today's slate average of 8.54 and well into the upper reaches of the historical distribution. Add in a combined gNERD of 15.13, above today's average of 15.21 only marginally and firmly in the historic 95th-percentile territory, and this is about as good as watchability scores get. The lineups aren't loaded with standout batting-runs profiles — both Atlanta and Philadelphia grade as roughly average-to-below on team offense — but with two front-line arms this good and a win-or-go-home stage, that hardly matters.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)
Philadelphia Phillies
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -60.5 | 7.1% | 8.1 | -9.8 | 53.0 | $309.8M | 30.5 | -21.0 | 2.92 | 2.69 | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.41 | -0.61 | 1.25 | -0.38 | 0.74 | 1.22 | 1.36 | -0.91 | 1.03 | 0.64 | — | — |
| tNERD | -1.41 | -0.61 | 1.25 | -0.38 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 4.00 | 4.43 |
Atlanta Braves
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -19.7 | 8.6% | -3.2 | 17.3 | 45.9 | $249.8M | 30.5 | -35.0 | 2.36 | 2.36 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.57 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1.36 | -1.53 | -0.05 | -0.06 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.57 | 0.68 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.14 |
Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 70 | 13.7% | 64.6% | 96.5 mph | 28 | 16.9s | -4 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.91 | 1.48 | 0.35 | 1.03 | -0.12 | -1.82 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.82 | 0.74 | 0.17 | 1.03 | 0.12 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.60 |
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 67 | 13.9% | 68.1% | 96.1 mph | 37 | 20.2s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -2.09 | 1.57 | 1.81 | 0.86 | 2.23 | 0.90 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 4.18 | 0.79 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.00 | -0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.08 |
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres, 7:00p
Summary
This is a Wild Card game! Good context found. Let me write the summary now.
A win-or-be-eliminated Wild Card opener with the game's two best offenses squaring off, though the starters won't blow anyone away. This is Game 1 of the Cubs-Padres NL Wild Card Series, a rematch of last year's set that "will be a rematch of the series that went the Cubs' way last postseason, albeit this time at Petco Park instead of Wrigley Field." Chicago's offense was the class of the league — "the best offense in baseball," leading in wRC+, runs, RBI, walk rate, and slugging — powered by MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, who tied for the league lead with 45 homers, added 41 steals, and led the majors in extra-base hits and runs. San Diego counters with a dangerous but streaky lineup; Fernando Tatis Jr. caught fire late after a slow start, finishing with 25 homers, while Manny Machado still hit 30 despite a rough season. Both teams grade out near the top of today's tNERD range. The pitching matchup is more modest — Boyd and King both carry pNERD scores in the mid-single digits, unremarkable by full-season standards — but Boyd's postseason track record stands out: he's posted a 1.66 ERA in 21 2/3 career postseason innings across seven appearances, while King is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four career postseason outings. Watch for the lineups, not the arms.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)
Chicago Cubs
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 110.1 | 7.6% | 5.0 | 72.3 | -7.4 | $246.2M | 29.8 | 10.0 | 3.01 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Z-score | 2.68 | -0.08 | 0.75 | 2.83 | -1.30 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 1.22 | 1.62 | — | — |
| tNERD | 2.68 | -0.08 | 0.75 | 2.83 | -1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.61 | 0.81 | 4.00 | 10.73 |
San Diego Padres
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 16.6 | 8.0% | 6.2 | 30.1 | 85.8 | $255.5M | 29.9 | -6.0 | 3.47 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.60 | 0.85 | -0.26 | 2.12 | 2.09 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 4.00 | 10.85 |
Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 103 | 10.2% | 65.6% | 92.8 mph | 35 | 18.8s | -8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | -0.15 | 0.75 | -0.61 | 1.70 | -0.26 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.15 | -0.07 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 4.08 |
Michael King, San Diego Padres
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 103 | 10.2% | 63.2% | 93.7 mph | 31 | 18.9s | -23 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.07 | -0.15 | -0.22 | -0.21 | 0.66 | -0.17 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros, 2:00p
Summary
This is a genuine playoff game with real stakes, and the storylines are as good as the numbers. Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round pits an Astros team that the Houston Astros are the first team to reach the postseason without a winning record against a White Sox club making its first postseason trip since 2021. Chicago's rookie lefty Hagen Smith is the headliner: Hagen Boyd Smith is an American professional pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, who was selected by the White Sox in the first round of the 2024 MLB draft, and since debuting in August he's been dominant, though this most likely won't be a traditional start, as he's been used as a reliever and hasn't thrown more than three innings in an outing. His 10.50 pNERD is elite - young, filthy strikeout stuff, low xFIP-. Houston's AJ Blubaugh carries a 0.00 pNERD simply because we lack data, not because he's bad. Team-wise, Chicago's young, cheap, deep bullpen (tNERD 8.65) dwarfs Houston's punchless, error-prone lineup (tNERD 3.15). At 13.65, gNERD sits comfortably above the historic average - worth clearing your schedule for.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 31.4 | 8.3% | -3.9 | 8.4 | 45.7 | $105.8M | 27.1 | -27.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.80 | 0.65 | -0.68 | 0.33 | 0.49 | -1.11 | -1.76 | -1.18 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.80 | 0.65 | -0.68 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1.11 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 8.65 |
Houston Astros
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 37.4 | 8.0% | -9.9 | -17.7 | 22.4 | $232.7M | 28.9 | 8.0 | 2.17 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.94 | 0.33 | -1.65 | -0.69 | -0.30 | 0.34 | -0.16 | 0.35 | -0.42 | -0.84 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.94 | 0.33 | -1.65 | -0.69 | -0.30 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.15 |
Hagen Smith, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 14.5% | 62.5% | 93.8 mph | 22 | 18.1s | -38 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.97 | 1.85 | -0.54 | -0.17 | -1.68 | -0.83 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.94 | 0.93 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 1.68 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 10.50 |
AJ Blubaugh, Houston Astros
No detailed stats available
- ← Previous
MLB: What to watch on September 27, 2026