MLB: What to watch on October 10, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.0 | 5:00p | Chicago White Sox | 8.7 | Cleveland Guardians | 7.2 | Sean Burke | 5.5 | Gavin Williams | 12.6 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians, 5:00p
Summary
A winner-take-all Game 5 with a legitimately electric pitching matchup — this is appointment viewing. The Guardians clawed back from a 2-0 series hole to force this decisive finale at Progressive Field, and they're sending out Gavin Williams, whose pNERD of 12.55 is comfortably the best mark on the entire slate today. His xFIP- of 69 and 97.4 mph heat make him must-watch even before you factor in the stakes, and his wide 22.0 luck figure suggests he may have actually pitched even better than his results so far. Sean Burke counters with a more modest 5.51 pNERD, but he's no pushover — he's gone 9.1 innings with 14 strikeouts and just one walk in his previous playoff start. Both rosters are young and cheap by payroll, which juices the team scores nicely, though Cleveland's offense is light on authority (that barrel-rate z-score is downright ugly). With a 16.97 gNERD, this sits well above the historical median and is the best game on today's board — rivalries, elimination drama, and a frontline arm all in one package.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Cleveland Guardians (2.16); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Chicago White Sox
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 31.4 | 8.3% | -4.0 | 9.2 | 45.7 | $105.8M | 27.1 | -27.0 | 1.82 | 2.57 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.80 | 0.65 | -0.70 | 0.36 | 0.49 | -1.11 | -1.76 | -1.18 | -1.11 | 0.39 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.80 | 0.65 | -0.70 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 1.11 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 4.00 | 8.66 |
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -23.8 | 5.7% | 5.3 | 11.3 | 54.3 | $88.9M | 27.6 | 8.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | -1.30 | -1.35 | 0.35 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.22 |
Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 97 | 11.1% | 66.1% | 94.8 mph | 26 | 20.1s | -16 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.29 | 0.27 | 0.98 | 0.28 | -0.64 | 0.82 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 0.57 | 0.14 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.64 | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.51 |
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 69 | 15.0% | 66.5% | 97.4 mph | 26 | 18.8s | 22 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.97 | 2.08 | 1.13 | 1.43 | -0.64 | -0.26 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 3.94 | 1.04 | 0.57 | 1.43 | 0.64 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 12.55 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 8, 2026