MLB: What to watch on August 24, 2026

• 24 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Ashcraft's electric arm makes this one worth your evening even if Robbie Ray's presence gives you pause. The Pirates' 26-year-old righty enters riding a stretch that got him an All-Star nod as a Misiorowski injury replacement, and he's been nails lately — he beat the Tigers his last time out, allowing one run on five hits while striking out four across eight innings without a walk. His 11.81 pNERD, built on elite strike-throwing and 97-mph heat, is the best pitching mark in today's slate. Ray, by contrast, is scuffling — his below-average strikeout stuff and wandering command produce a middling xFIP and the lowest pNERD on the board, though he's avoided disaster results so far. San Diego brings the juice on the other side of the ball: the Padres have won 14 of their last 18 games and sit tied for the final NL wild card spot, while Pittsburgh has dropped three straight and needs to find something on the road. The Padres' bullpen (headlined by a lights-out closer) and strong glovework push their tNERD near the top of today's games, giving this one a 14.50 gNERD that clears the historical 95th percentile.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Padres

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

Robbie Ray, San Diego Padres

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Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Boston's high-flying offense meets a hot Sandy Alcantara at loanDepot Park, and the tNERD numbers say the "middling" Marlins deserve more respect than their record suggests. Miami actually posts the higher team score here thanks to a young, cheap roster and standout baserunning, while positive luck marks for both sides hint they've been slightly better than their run differentials show. Alcantara has quietly rounded into form — he's averaged roughly 6.54 innings per start this season, and 20.3 outs over his last 15 — and his pNERD gets a real lift from mid-90s-plus velocity that grades near the top of the league. Suarez brings a strong xFIP- and a deliberate pace that plays well on TV, though he's on six days rest after a shaky outing against Arizona where he allowed four earned runs over 5⅓ innings. Notably, Suarez owns a 7-2 record with a 3.07 ERA in 22 career appearances against Miami, giving this some built-in familiarity. With a gNERD of 13.85, comfortably above the day's 11.15 average and solidly in the upper tier historically, this is a legitimately watchable pitching-forward matchup rather than the mismatch the moneyline implies.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Miami Marlins

Ranger Suarez, Boston Red Sox

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

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Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

The Cubs bring the NL's best offense to the desert, and Merrill Kelly is the pitcher standing in its way — that's the whole ballgame in one sentence, and it favors turning this one on. Chicago, fresh off a 19-2 blowout of Seattle, arrives with a comfortable wild-card cushion while Arizona sits just outside the field, making every game in this series matter for the Diamondbacks even if it's mostly background noise for the Cubs. Kelly comes in reeling — he gave up six earned runs and allowed seven hits in four innings against the Red Sox — and his 1.56 pNERD reflects an xFIP- north of 120, ugly even by contact-manager standards. Gausman, since being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline, is unlucky more than bad — his 6.55 pNERD is buoyed by strong swinging-strike and strike-rate marks plus a healthy luck bump, suggesting better results are coming. The Cubs' 10.66 tNERD is elite, driven by standout fielding and a Pete Crow-Armstrong-powered lineup, while Arizona's offense and broadcast appeal lag. At 12.10, this gNERD sits comfortably above both the historic and today's averages — worth a look, particularly for Cubs fans and Kelly's opponents alike.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks

Kevin Gausman, Chicago Cubs

Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

I have enough to work with now.

Two aces, one pitcher's park, and a real reason to tune in. Zack Wheeler and Logan Gilbert headline this one, and both bring legitimate strikeout stuff into T-Mobile Park, a venue built to smother offense. Kyle Schwarber has been a wrecking ball all season with 39 home runs, while Zack Wheeler's 2.92 ERA makes him one of the more difficult pitchers in the league to solve. Wheeler's peripherals back that up — his xFIP- sits at an excellent 70, and his elite whiff rate drives a pNERD score comfortably above today's average. Gilbert isn't far behind, pairing a 96 mph fastball with strong swing-and-miss numbers, though his plodding pace docks him slightly. Wheeler has 144 strikeouts in 120.1 innings, a 10.8 K/9 rate, so expect quick outs and quiet innings from both dugouts.

The team scores tell a lopsider story, though: Philadelphia's bullpen depth and baserunning give it a solid tNERD, while Seattle's shaky defense drags its number down near replacement level. At 35-30 at home, T-Mobile Park has been a genuine advantage for the Mariners, so don't assume the visitors coast. With a gNERD of 11.89 — above both the historical and today's averages — this game earns its slot on the watch list primarily through pitching craft rather than offensive fireworks; go in expecting a tense, low-scoring affair rather than a slugfest.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Seattle Mariners

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

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Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Chase Burns is the reason to tune in here, even if everything else about this game is fighting an uphill battle. The 23-year-old righty is running a 97.7 mph fastball with elite swing-and-miss stuff (xFIP- of 83), and his 10.10 pNERD is comfortably above today's average, making him the single most watchable thing on either roster. Everything else, though, is muted: combined tNERD of 4.04 is well below the historical midpoint, reflecting two teams playing out the string — the Reds are road favorites at -140 over a Giants team that has faded badly and now leans on pitching and ballpark to keep games close. San Francisco's lineup still has some juice via Jung Hoo Lee, hitting .289 with 9 home runs and 46 RBI, and Casey Schmitt, who has quietly put together 21 home runs and 55 RBI, while Elly De La Cruz gives the Reds a disruptive presence atop the order with 76 runs scored and 22 stolen bases. The Giants' opponent is a TBD arm with zero pNERD data, so this is essentially Burns-or-bust for entertainment value — a 11.59 gNERD that's solid but not special, propped up almost entirely by one electric rookie arm.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Cincinnati Reds

San Francisco Giants

Chase Burns, Cincinnati Reds

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Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

A playoff-race game with middling pitching but a White Sox lineup that's quietly become worth watching. Texas arrives in Chicago in the thick of it—tied atop the AL West and fighting for a wild-card spot—while the White Sox sit atop the AL Central at 68-62, so there's real stakes even if the pitching matchup doesn't scream must-see. Kumar Rocker's pNERD of 3.79 reflects a season that's been more grind than dominance—he's 4-10 with a 4.46 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 121 innings—with shaky command dragging things down even as his strikeout stuff and youth help. Chicago's probable, Jose Urquidy, has no pNERD data available, so consider his half of the mound a mystery box. The real juice here is the White Sox offense: young, cheap, and hitting the ball hard, with a tNERD of 8.54 built on strong batting runs, an elite barrel rate, and a bullpen that's quietly been effective. Texas, by contrast, is merely fine at 5.27, buoyed mostly by a well-above-average luck score suggesting some positive regression could be coming. Overall gNERD of 11.30 lands a shade above the historic average—decent, not electric.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Texas Rangers

Chicago White Sox

Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Interesting to note: Framber Valdez is now with the Tigers (not Astros anymore), which I should incorporate. Now let me write the summary.

Skip this one unless you're specifically chasing the AL East leader's road trip or morbid curiosity about a former World Series ace scuffling in a new uniform. Drew Rasmussen brings real stuff to the mound—his xFIP- of 77 and 8.30 pNERD are legit top-shelf, and he's punched out at least five batters in 17 of 24 starts this year—but he's also coming off a rough turn against Toronto where he gave up five runs on seven hits while striking out five over five frames to take the loss in a 7-6 final. On the other side, Framber Valdez—now a Tiger after years in Houston—has been genuinely bad lately: over his last 11⅓ innings he's posted a 6.35 ERA and 5.47 FIP, walking nine and allowing 11 hits, numbers his 3.10 pNERD reflects. Detroit is limping into this one too, aiming to break a five-game skid, while Tampa Bay owns the highest team batting average in the AL at .261. The Rays' offense and Rasmussen's whiffs give this some appeal, but Detroit's tNERD (4.04) and Valdez's shaky command drag the gNERD (10.30) to just below average compared to today's slate (avg. 11.15) and historical norms (mean 10.81).

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Tampa Bay Rays

Detroit Tigers

Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays

Framber Valdez, Detroit Tigers

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Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

I have enough information to write the summary.

Cade Cavalli is quietly having a breakout season, and he's the entire reason to tune in to this one. The rest of the game—two last-place-adjacent clubs sputtering toward September—is not doing you many favors.

Cavalli, still just three years removed from Tommy John surgery, has been one of the more effective arms in the league lately: he's sitting at 5-7, 5.97... RHP Cade Cavalli (11-5, 3.22) with a 96.6 mph fastball and a tidy 77 xFIP-, both of which power his 7.59 pNERD—comfortably above today's average. Feltner, by contrast, owns 5.97 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 64 strikeouts and an xFIP- north of 120, translating to a below-replacement 2.16 pNERD; he's simply overmatched here. On the team side, Washington's tNERD (9.04) dwarfs Colorado's anemic 0.62, thanks to a younger, faster, more athletic Nationals lineup, though their bullpen has been a mess and they've dropped six of their last seven games and have struggled to score consistently. Colorado, meanwhile, is without Hunter Goodman, who lands on the injury report with a shoulder issue, further thinning an already bottom-of-the-league offense. At 9.70, the gNERD lands below the historical and today's averages—watch for Cavalli, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals

Ryan Feltner, Colorado Rockies

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

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Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Guardians pitcher rookie of year candidate, Klassen also rookie. Angels team stats poor. Let's write summary.

A rookie pitching showcase wrapped in a mostly lopsided, low-stakes affair. Cleveland's Parker Messick, quietly one of the AL's best first-year arms, headlines a game that's more about individual craft than team drama, since the Angels' offense and defense have been a season-long mess.

Messick, who has emerged as a top three choice for AL Rookie of the Year with a 2.54 ERA that ranks 7th in the majors and 152 strikeouts, comes in fresh off a strong outing where he went 6 2/3 innings against the Giants, surrendering just one earned run. His 8.33 pNERD is well above average for today's slate, built on a stingy xFIP-, a quick pace, and rookie youth. Opposite him is Angels rookie George Klassen, who touches 96.5 mph but pairs it with shaky command — his low strike rate and inflated xFIP- drag his pNERD down to 2.58, a mismatch reflected in the 9-8 Messick vs. 2-1 Klassen ledgers. The Guardians own a healthy 7.26 tNERD thanks to strong baserunning, fielding, and a low payroll/young roster, while the Angels' offense and defense (both well below average) sink their tNERD to a paltry 1.19. Overall gNERD of 9.68 sits a bit below the historic median and today's average — watchable for the Messick start, skippable otherwise.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Angels

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

George Klassen, Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Both the Twins and A's are playing out sad-trombone seasons, and this one lands near the bottom of the day's watchability rankings — so set your expectations accordingly. Minnesota (63-68) is scraping by with a rotation that's missing Joe Ryan (glute) and Pablo López (elbow), which is why Zebby Matthews, its most interesting arm here, is shouldering a heavier workload than anyone in Minneapolis would like. Matthews still posts the better pNERD (6.30 vs. 1.58) thanks to plus velocity, a young age bump, and some positive luck suggesting his shiny surface numbers should actually get better, not worse. Jeffrey Springs, on the other hand, is running a 122 xFIP- for the last-place Athletics (51-80), and his component score gets dinged hard for it — his last outing (5 2/3 innings, two earned runs) was tidy, but the season-long profile isn't. Both teams are held back on the team side too: Oakland's dreadful in fielding, baserunning and bullpen, while Minnesota's own defense and bullpen woes drag down an offense that's just okay. With a gNERD of 6.63 — well below both the historic average (10.81) and today's slate average (11.15) — this is one to skip unless the standings race is dead.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Minnesota Twins

Athletics

Zebby Matthews, Minnesota Twins

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

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  MLB: What to watch on August 23, 2026