MLB: What to watch on August 25, 2026

• 25 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

A near-max gNERD score of 15.64 makes this the day's best watch, anchored by a red-hot Red Sox rookie and two roster-building underdogs. Payton Tolle brings a 9.74 pNERD into a start nearing the one-year anniversary of his debut, and he's been nails lately — he has won four straight decisions and is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four starts this month, backed by elite strike-throwing and whiff rates that outstrip his tidy xFIP-. Miami's mystery starter (probably journeyman Tyler Phillips, who worked out of the bullpen his last time out) carries a blank pNERD, so don't expect fireworks from that side of the mound. Team-wise, the Marlins post the higher tNERD (9.35) thanks to a young, cheap roster and serious positive luck — they're underperforming their skill marks and due for better results. Boston's 7.18 tNERD leans on a strong bullpen and its own modest positive luck. Add in a fresh Rafael Devers subplot back in Boston's lineup, and this one edges out today's average gNERD of 11.48 by a wide margin.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Miami Marlins

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox

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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

The best-in-baseball Brewers roll into Citi Field with a live-armed lefty on the mound, and this one's got real gNERD juice. Milwaukee sits at 81-50, MLB's best record, and comes in having taken each of their last three series against the Dodgers, Mariners, and Braves; the Mets, by contrast, own the sixth-worst record in the league and have been outscored by 40 runs this season. Kyle Harrison, whose 10.77 pNERD is well above today's field, has quietly been terrific — his xFIP- of 72 and knack for missing bats and pounding the zone are backed up by real results, including a bounce-back start where he tossed five shutout innings against Seattle, striking out eight in a 22-0 Brewers blowout. He's young (24) and pitches fast, both plusses for watchability. Opposing him is rookie Zac Thornton, who will make his 10th career start after last allowing three earned runs on seven hits in five innings against San Diego — solid enough production, though we don't have advanced metrics to grade him. Milwaukee's tNERD (10.00) is elite, driven by strong baserunning and bullpen work; the Mets are more middling. Overall gNERD of 15.54 ranks near the top of both today's slate and the historical distribution — worth carving out time for.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets

Kyle Harrison, Milwaukee Brewers

Zac Thornton, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres, 6:40p

Summary

Paul Skenes and a Padres bullpen that leads the league in shutting doors — this one has actual stakes and actual talent, even if the box scores haven't been cooperating lately. Skenes still owns elite peripherals (his pNERD of 10.57 is well above today's average), but Pittsburgh needs Skenes to resemble the ace he was in his first two seasons instead of the pitcher who has been pretty mortal lately, and his last outing was shaky — he lasted only 4 1/3 innings and 81 pitches, yielding four hits and three runs with four walks and five strikeouts. King is steadier than flashy, sitting at a modest pNERD of 3.46, but he's been the Padres' most dependable arm this year. San Diego's tNERD (9.93) is buoyed by a shutdown bullpen and strong fielding, both firmly above league norms, while Pittsburgh's solid baserunning gets undercut by shaky defense. The Padres are fighting for their playoff lives, and Monday's extra-inning loss to Pittsburgh only raises the tension. With a gNERD of 15.33 — comfortably above both the historical 95th percentile (15.60 is close) and today's slate average of 11.48 — this is one of the better watches on the board, thanks mostly to Skenes' upside and a Padres club with real October urgency.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Padres

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Michael King, San Diego Padres

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Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels, 6:38p

Summary

Good, I have enough information now to write the summary.

A hard-throwing strikeout machine against a rebuilding Angels club that's quietly figured out how to pitch a little better since firing its pitching coach — this one's worth a look mostly because of the guy on the Cleveland mound. Gavin Williams enters riding a hot second half, having just punched his 200th strikeout of the season and touching a 100.3 mph heater at the top of the zone in his last outing against San Francisco. His 12.41 pNERD is comfortably above today's average, built on elite whiff and strike rates and a mid-90s-plus fastball that has made him a pitcher with "a knack for limiting balls in play," to the point that "it's crazy that anybody touches him." Walbert Ureña, the 22-year-old on the other side, brings his own triple-digit-adjacent velocity and a tidy 6.95 pNERD, though his control still lags. The Guardians' 7.03 tNERD reflects a scrappy, contact-oriented club that has clawed back into the wild-card picture, arriving in Anaheim on a five-game winning streak and just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. The Angels' 1.27 tNERD tells the other story — a last-place team with shaky defense and baserunning. Overall gNERD of 13.83 sits above both the historical and today's averages, making this a solid pick if you like watching a bat-missing arm work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Angels

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians

Walbert Ureña, Los Angeles Angels

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Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

deGrom at 38 is still throwing like a man who hasn't gotten the memo about aging curves, and that alone makes this one worth flipping on. The Rangers' ace enters riding a scoreless outing against Washington where he went six scoreless innings while allowing only one hit, and on the season he's carrying a 3.77 ERA in 126 2/3 innings with 11.2 strikeouts per nine — numbers that translate into a top-shelf pNERD of 11.04, built on elite swinging-strike rate, a strong xFIP-, and velocity still sitting at 97-plus. Anthony Kay, by contrast, is a bottom-of-the-scale complementary piece (pNERD 2.48) with below-average whiff and command marks — this is an ace-versus-innings-eater pairing, not a true duel.

The team stats add unexpected juice: Chicago's tNERD (8.37) is buoyed by a young, cheap roster and strong barrel rate, while Texas's league-worst offense (4.0 runs per game, which ranks 28th) is propped up almost entirely by a hefty positive luck score, suggesting they've been underperforming and could snap out of it. Combined gNERD of 13.61 sits comfortably above both the historic and today's-slate averages, making this one of the better watches on the board, mostly on deGrom's arm alone.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Texas Rangers

Chicago White Sox

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Tyler Glasnow's long-awaited return from a back that's been barking since May headlines a Dodgers-Braves matchup with real playoff stakes attached. Glasnow last took the mound on May 6th before back spasms shelved him for over three months; he'll come back with a track record of going 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA and 49 strikeouts over 39⅔ innings in seven starts before his absence, and his 8.75 pNERD — driven by nasty swinging-strike rates and a stingy xFIP— suggests that track record is legit, not lucky. The Dodgers arrive riding a six-game winning streak, and their 8.26 tNERD reflects a lineup that hits for both power and average, though a middling broadcast package keeps it from climbing higher. On the other side, Bryce Elder has quietly authored a bounce-back season after posting ERAs of 6.52 and 5.30 the last two campaigns, though he's "fighting through some knee stuff" according to his manager, and his modest stuff shows in a below-average 4.87 pNERD. Add in that Atlanta's lead atop the NL East has shrunk from 9½ games to three in less than two weeks thanks to a hot Phillies team, and there's plenty of divisional drama simmering. At 13.56, the gNERD score sits comfortably above the historical average and roughly in line with today's slate, making this a solid, if not spectacular, watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers

Bryce Elder, Atlanta Braves

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Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 6:40p

Summary

The Cubs' offense and defense make this one worth catching, even if the pitching matchup itself won't blow anyone away. Chicago's tNERD of 10.76 sits above the 95th percentile for today's slate, powered by a lineup that's mashed its way to a 19-2 demolition of Seattle over the weekend and a 7-0 series-opening win over Arizona on Monday, with Pete Crow-Armstrong adding two more homers in Seattle and reaching 33 for the year. Arizona, meanwhile, is scrapping for a wild-card spot at 69-63 but is doing it without Ketel Marte, who's expected to be activated from the injured list ahead of a series against the Phillies on Aug. 31, leaving Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno to carry more weight than usual. On the mound, Clay Holmes has quietly been excellent, having allowed just one run in his last two starts spanning 12 innings, giving him a modest edge in pNERD over Pfaadt, whose middling xFIP- keeps things unspectacular. Overall gNERD of 12.51 lands comfortably above the historical median, mostly on the strength of a Cubs club that's fun to watch even when the arms aren't must-see.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs

Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers, 3:40p

Summary

Tampa Bay's playoff push meets Detroit's fading season, with a solid Rays lefty on the mound against a talented but unproven Tigers rookie trying to find his footing after time away. The gNERD here sits at 10.89, right around league average both historically and for today's slate, so this isn't a must-see, but there's enough substance to make it worthwhile. Ian Seymour is the headline attraction, with a strong 8.05 pNERD driven by excellent contact management (an 87 xFIP-) and a knack for missing bats and pounding the zone; he's quietly built a 9-4 record while helping the Rays chase a division title. Jackson Jobe, on the other hand, carries no pNERD data, reflecting his up-and-down rookie season — he's shown flashes, bouncing back against the Pirates by allowing four hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings, but inconsistency remains the theme. Tampa Bay's tNERD edges Detroit's thanks to better batting output and underlying luck suggesting more runs are coming, while Detroit's roster skews toward barrel rate and payroll spend without much to show for it lately, having dropped four straight at home. Not appointment viewing, but a reasonably watchable Tuesday matchup with a real pitching mismatch worth checking in on.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Tampa Bay Rays

Detroit Tigers

Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays

Jackson Jobe, Detroit Tigers

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners, 6:40p

Summary

Cal Raleigh just torched the Phillies for three home runs, so this rubber match at least promises fireworks, even if the underlying gNERD score of 10.59 sits almost exactly at the historical median. Nola comes in riding a two-start stretch of shutdown ball — he's won his past two starts against Minnesota and Miami, giving up one earned run on five hits in each, striking out 17 against three walks over those 12 innings — and his 5.71 pNERD is boosted by a strong xFIP- and some positive regression luck, suggesting his actual results have been worse than his stuff deserves. Kirby is the more interesting arm on paper (7.25 pNERD, comfortably above average for today's slate), thanks to plus velocity and elite strike-throwing, but he's been rough lately: he has two losses and three no-decisions since his last victory on July 20, and lasted just 3 1/3 innings in a 7-4 defeat Thursday at Milwaukee, allowing six runs on nine hits. Seattle's tNERD (2.60) is dragged down hard by poor fielding, while Philadelphia's bullpen and baserunning give it a healthier 5.62. Nothing screams must-watch, but a hot Raleigh and two shaky-but-talented former All-Stars make it watchable enough.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Seattle Mariners

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

I have enough information to write the summary from the Pecko search results and the provided stats.

A rookie making his major-league debut on his actual 24th birthday against a Yankees lineup that leads baseball in barrel rate — that's a storyline worth your remote control. Ethan Pecko, Houston's ninth-best prospect and the club's 17th different starter this injury-riddled season (tying a 60-year-old franchise mark), will make his debut in the middle of a heated playoff race with the Astros holding just a one-game lead over the Rangers in the AL West — well, at least he did a week ago; he's stuck around since, and now gets to pitch on the day he turns 24. His stuff is promising (mid-90s sinker/fastball, a slider that graded as his best pitch), but Triple-A results were middling and we have no big-league statistical profile yet, hence the flat 0.00 pNERD. Opposite him, Will Warren carries a solidly above-average 5.18 pNERD, propped up by a strong xFIP- of 92 and some positive regression-luck working in his favor. The Yankees' 7.80 tNERD, buoyed by top-shelf barrel rate and baserunning, dwarfs Houston's underwhelming 2.65 mark, dragged down by shaky fielding and baserunning. Overall gNERD of 10.32 sits almost exactly at the historic median — watchable mostly for the debut novelty, not the pitching matchup itself.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Houston Astros

New York Yankees

Ethan Pecko, Houston Astros

No detailed stats available

Will Warren, New York Yankees

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Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

A last-place Rockies club limping into Washington gives this game modest juice, but a pitching prospect's major league debut is the actual reason to tune in. The Nationals crushed Colorado 13-3 in the series opener, and now hand the ball to Mason Adams, who's reportedly making his MLB debut after arriving at the trade deadline — pure NERD gold for novelty, though we've got no statistical read on him yet, hence the 0.00 pNERD. Across the mound, Colorado's Andrew Alvarez brings a modest 4.90 pNERD, buoyed by a tidy xFIP- of 92 and grounder-heavy stuff that's kept the ball in the park, even if his walk rate leaves something to be desired. Washington's 9.02 tNERD stands out — a Colorado lineup that ranks among the least productive in baseball, and one that gets noticeably worse away from the thin air of Coors Field — with real thump in the batting and baserunning columns, though a shaky bullpen drags the number down. Colorado's tNERD of 0.72 tells the whole sad story of this Rockies season. At 9.82, the gNERD sits a shade below today's average, watchable mostly for the debut angle.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals

Andrew Alvarez, Washington Nationals

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Minnesota Twins @ Athletics, 6:40p

Summary

Two also-rans playing out the string in a stadium that isn't even their home city, but there's a rookie pitching curiosity worth a peek. The Twins (64-68) sit third in a mediocre AL Central while the A's — still nominally playing in West Sacramento's Sutter Health Park as they wait out their Vegas move — are buried at 51-81, fifth in the AL West, and just dropped game one of this series 9-6. Neither team brings much juice: the Twins are the better pitching team "despite having some serious problems with run prevention this season," and Oakland/Sacramento's putrid defense and baserunning drag both tNERD scores toward the bottom of today's slate. The lone bright spot is 23-year-old lefty Gage Jump, who made his MLB debut for the Athletics in 2026 and still owns the look of a prospect finding his footing — his 6.67 pNERD is buoyed by youth and a lively fastball even though his surface numbers (5-8, 4.83 ERA) are rough. Taj Bradley counters with mid-90s-plus velocity and a similar overall grade. Individually the arms are watchable; collectively, this game's 9.02 gNERD lands well below both the historical and today's averages — a skippable matchup unless you're scouting Jump's development.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Minnesota Twins

Athletics

Taj Bradley, Minnesota Twins

Gage Jump, Athletics

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Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Both teams cling to fading Wild Card hopes, but this one is more "please stay alive" than "must watch." The Cardinals arrive home reeling from a three-game skid, capped by a walk-up implosion where St. Louis blew a 4-0 ninth-inning lead in Philadelphia, while the Orioles sit just a game back in a jammed AL Wild Card race despite lingering near the division basement. Pete Alonso has been Baltimore's engine with 30 homers, and Gunnar Henderson adds pop and speed, but the Orioles offense has otherwise cooled, hitting a mere .567 OPS over their last five games. Chris Bassitt takes the mound winless in his last three outings, and the numbers back up the skepticism — his xFIP- of 115 and thin swinging-strike rate translate to a pNERD barely above replacement level, propped up only by some bad luck he can expect to shake off. St. Louis counters with a still-unnamed starter, so that half of the pitching matchup is a total unknown, dragging the average pitcher NERD down further. With a gNERD of 8.83, well below today's 11.48 average, and both starting pitchers offering little marquee value, this is a game for the standings-obsessed rather than the quality-seekers.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Baltimore Orioles

St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Bassitt, Baltimore Orioles

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Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants, 6:45p

Summary

Not a marquee matchup, but there's a certain grim poetry to watching two last-gasp rosters play out the string in late August. Cincinnati sits at the bottom of the NL Central, while San Francisco's season has curdled into disappointment after a March that promised stars like Devers, Chapman, and Webb — "the San Francisco Giants are not a good baseball team," a fact underscored by a recent sweep at the hands of the Red Sox. Neither starter inspires much confidence: Adrian Houser (4-7, 4.08 ERA) faces Brady Singer (5-11, 4.72 ERA), and the pNERD math agrees, with both scoring below the day's 6.08 average — Singer's fringy velocity and shaky command drag him to 3.88, while Houser's below-average whiff rate leaves him at 2.78. The Giants are further thinned by injuries to Casey Schmitt, Jesus Rodriguez, and Marcelo Mayer. On the team side, both clubs land near league-average tNERD (4.30-4.32), with San Francisco's only real juice coming from broadcaster ratings and some positive luck that suggests better days ahead if you squint. At a 7.64 gNERD, this one sits below the historic median and well under today's slate average — background noise rather than appointment viewing.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Cincinnati Reds

San Francisco Giants

Brady Singer, Cincinnati Reds

Adrian Houser, San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

Good, that's enough material to write a solid summary.

A once-great arm limping toward the finish line against a hot but lottery-bound club—watch this one for nostalgia, not for baseball quality. Max Scherzer, 42 and closing in on 3,500 career strikeouts, is having the worst season of his Hall-of-Fame career; he's 1-6 with a 7.40 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings, and last time out gave up seven earned runs in four innings against Tampa Bay. His pNERD sits at a rock-bottom 0.05, dragged down almost entirely by an xFIP- north of 135. The Royals counter with Seth Lugo, whose 3.72 pNERD is unspectacular but respectable, buoyed by a notably slow pace that at least keeps things from dragging. Kansas City arrives having won eight straight, outscoring opponents 50-27, their longest streak since 2024, though at 58-74 they're playing out the string far from contention. Toronto, meanwhile, is clinging to wild-card hopes but has won 13 of 22 games this month despite Scherzer's struggles. Both offenses are middling at best—tNERD scores of 3.25 and 3.14 are well below average—and Kansas City's bullpen is a genuine liability. At 5.08, this gNERD sits near the bottom of today's slate; watch for the historical footnote of Scherzer's decline, not for competitive baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Kansas City Royals

Toronto Blue Jays

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

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