MLB: What to watch on August 26, 2026

• 26 August 2026
• mlbw

Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.

Notes:

• Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
• Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.

Detail

Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox, 4:40p

Summary

A pitching duel with real strikeout stuff on both sides makes this one worth your remote. MacKenzie Gore and Sean Burke enter as their respective teams' strikeout leaders—Gore has racked up 750 career strikeouts in 677 innings, while Burke has been a big reason the White Sox have risen up the AL standings, sitting in the top 20 of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. Both pitchers post nearly identical pNERD marks (6.76 and 6.71) built on similarly stingy xFIP- marks around 90, giving this a nicely symmetrical mound matchup rather than a mismatch. The bigger juice comes from Chicago's tNERD (8.34), fueled by a young, bargain-payroll roster with real pop in the barrel rate—exactly the kind of scrappy, underpaid overachiever profile that makes a lineup fun to watch. Texas checks in lower (5.53) but carries a hefty positive luck score, meaning the Rangers have been underperforming their skill level and are due for better results, even as they've underperformed expectations all season, ranking 25th in runs scored and managing just seven total runs against the Angels. Add it up and you get a gNERD of 13.67, sitting comfortably above the historical average and near the top of today's slate.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Texas Rangers (2.01); radio, Chicago White Sox (2.57)

Texas Rangers

Chicago White Sox

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

Sean Burke, Chicago White Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves, 4:15p

Summary

Two National League division leaders meeting head-on makes this one worth carving out time for, even if the probable pitching matchup looks lopsided on paper. The Dodgers (80-51) roll into Truist Park against the Braves (76-55) in what's billed as a battle of National League division leaders, with Los Angeles boasting the best tNERD in this pairing (8.39) thanks to strong batting and bullpen marks. Roki Sasaki brings real helium with a 97.9 mph average fastball and elite swinging-strike rate, translating to an 8.29 pNERD - well above the day's average - even though his surface numbers (5-5, 4.42 ERA) undersell the stuff. Across the mound, AJ Smith-Shawver is a total mystery box: no underlying data available, a 6.23 ERA, and zero decisions this year, which is pNERD's polite way of shrugging. Atlanta's bullpen has been hit with attrition, with Reynaldo López and Robert Suarez both on the injured list, while the Dodgers are missing Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing. At 13.52, the gNERD sits comfortably above today's 10.83 average, so lean in for Sasaki's velocity if nothing else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.45); radio, Los Angeles Dodgers (2.51)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Atlanta Braves

Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta Braves

No detailed stats available

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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets, 4:10p

Summary

Milwaukee's runaway train of a bullpen and baserunning game rolls into Queens against a Mets team playing out the string, and while the pitching matchup won't wow anyone, the score still lands comfortably above average. The Brewers, sitting atop the NL Central at 81-51 after sweeping through the Dodgers, Mariners, and Braves, just got roughed up as May allowed seven runs on seven hits over two innings against Seattle, though his track record against these Mets is solid — a 3.38 ERA with 14 strikeouts over 18 2/3 innings, including six scoreless frames in a June win. His 96.8 mph heater and strong xFIP- still make him the most-watchable arm on the mound. Robert Stock, a 36-year-old journeyman who bounced from the Padres to the Red Sox to the Cubs and Mets before a stint in Korea, gets a zero pNERD simply because we lack the data — treat that as noise, not a verdict. The real juice here is Milwaukee's tNERD near 9.82, fueled by elite baserunning and bullpen work, comfortably in today's upper tier, against a last-place Mets club that's merely respectable, not thrilling.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, New York Mets (3.32); radio, New York Mets (3.05)

Milwaukee Brewers

New York Mets

Dustin May, Milwaukee Brewers

Robert Stock, New York Mets

No detailed stats available

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners, 1:10p

Summary

Bryan Woo has ace-level pitch quality with a mediocre record — his last outing against Milwaukee was a disaster, and the Mariners' shaky defense isn't helping his cause. Jesús Luzardo, meanwhile, is quietly having his best season, and this matchup pits two of the more electric arms in either league against each other in a series finale.

This is a well-above-average watch: the 13.09 gNERD sits comfortably above the 10.81 historical mean and lands near the top of today's slate, which ranges from 7.45 to 13.67. The pitching is doing the heavy lifting here — Luzardo's 10.72 pNERD is elite, built on a filthy 3.35 ERA, 194 strikeouts across 156 innings this year, plus mid-90s velocity and a swinging-strike rate that ranks near the top of the league. Woo's 7.57 pNERD is nothing to scoff at either, even though his surface numbers took a hit when he faced the Milwaukee Brewers and worked just 3.1 innings, surrendering six earned runs on nine hits and two walks — his xFIP suggests that outing was more bad luck than a sign of decline. Team-wise, Philadelphia's bullpen and baserunning give them the edge, while Seattle's putrid team defense (a fielding component that's one of the worst in the sample) drags their tNERD down to 2.46, even with some positive regression looming given their negative luck score. The Mariners are also chasing a series sweep after taking the first two behind strong starts, so there's a little extra juice on the line even if the marquee attraction here is arm talent rather than lineup fireworks.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Philadelphia Phillies (2.92); radio, Philadelphia Phillies (2.69)

Philadelphia Phillies

Seattle Mariners

Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins, 3:40p

Summary

Boston's Sonny Gray has been quietly excellent this season, sitting at a 16-3 mark with a 2.79 ERA and 123 strikeouts through 138.2 innings, and he'll try to close out a sweep of the skidding Marlins. His pNERD of 4.32 is unspectacular for someone with this record, dinged by a slow pace and modest whiff rate, but the underlying xFIP still supports him as a plus arm. Across the mound, Ryan Gusto is still winless at 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA, though his 5.23 pNERD (tops in this game) reflects strong strike-throwing and a sneaky-good peripheral profile for a Marlins rotation that's overachieving its results. Miami's tNERD of 9.22 stands out, fueled by a young, cheap roster, strong baserunning, and serious positive batting luck — meaning this offense has been getting more than its skills suggest, which could mean either regression or more fireworks depending which way you squint. Boston brings a five-game win streak and a well-above-average bullpen into loanDepot park. At a 12.99 gNERD, this sits a bit above today's average slate and comfortably above the historical middle, making it a reasonable pick if you want quality pitching with some spark on the other side.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Boston Red Sox (2.47); radio, Boston Red Sox (2.64)

Boston Red Sox

Miami Marlins

Sonny Gray, Boston Red Sox

Ryan Gusto, Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres, 1:10p

Summary

A solid mid-tier watch, buoyed by a Padres team that's quietly become one of the more entertaining rosters in baseball and a young Pirates arm with triple-digit-adjacent heat. This one lands comfortably above average with a gNERD of 12.48, thanks mostly to San Diego's tNERD of 9.79 — driven by an excellent bullpen and a broadcast crew that's apparently must-listen-radio. Bubba Chandler, at just 23, brings a 98.5 mph average fastball and the corresponding pNERD boost that comes with being young and hard-throwing, though his control still lags (elevated walk rate, modest swinging-strike numbers) and he's shown both strikeout ability and some volatility this year. Across the plate, Randy Vásquez has been on a heater lately — Padres manager Craig Stammen has praised him, calling him a "man on a mission, proving that he deserves to be in the starting rotation" — and in his last start, Vásquez went seven innings, allowing two runs on two hits to the Twins. Neither pitcher's underlying numbers (xFIP- above 110 for both) scream ace, but the Padres' bullpen depth and defense give this game a floor even if the starters wobble.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Diego Padres (3.47); radio, San Diego Padres (3.37)

Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Padres

Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates

Randy Vásquez, San Diego Padres

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Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 12:40p

Summary

The Cubs’ juggernaut offense meets a Diamondbacks team clinging to a hot starter, making this series finale watchable mostly for the lineup than the arms on the mound. Chicago's tNERD of 10.55 is comfortably above the historic norm, powered by elite fielding and a batting attack anchored by Alex Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who have been leading the way for the Cubs in the second half, both with a 162 wRC+ and a combined 22 home runs. Arizona's tNERD (5.39) is unremarkable, dragged down by middling batting despite solid baserunning. The pitching matchup is the weak link — Boyd (3.72 pNERD) and Rodriguez (3.07 pNERD) both sit below league-median NERD marks. That said, Rodriguez arrives with real buzz: he kept the Braves and Dodgers scoreless on just two hits over 7.0 innings each, and before that shut out the Padres and Pirates for a combined 13.2 innings, though he did get roughed up in his last start. Boyd, meanwhile, has struggled in his recent outings, a rough stretch for a pitcher who was one of the more dependable arms in this rotation for most of the summer. Overall gNERD of 11.37 lands just above average — tune in for the bats, not the arms.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Chicago Cubs (3.01); radio, Chicago Cubs (3.15)

Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks

Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs

Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cleveland Guardians @ Los Angeles Angels, 1:07p

Summary

Cleveland's playing meaningful baseball while Anaheim is running out the clock, and that gap shows up everywhere except, weirdly, on the mound. The Guardians (67-66) are clinging to second in the AL Central, just two and a half games back, while the Angels (52-81) are buried in a tie for fourth in the AL West and riding a five-losses-in-seven skid. Joey Cantillo has quietly been excellent, giving up only one earned run in each of his past three starts, allowing eight hits over 11 2/3 innings while striking out 15, and his pNERD (5.69) reflects a swing-and-miss arm with solid peripherals for his age. Grayson Rodriguez is the more interesting story: after an ugly start to the year, he has a 3.27 ERA in four August starts, striking out 25 batters over 22 innings, and his 96 mph heat plus a hefty positive luck score suggest better days than his 109 xFIP- indicates. Cleveland's 7.14 tNERD (age, payroll thrift, bullpen depth) dwarfs the Angels' 1.56, a fielding- and baserunning-starved outfit. It's a middling 10.02 gNERD - roughly average for today's slate - carried more by Cantillo's steadiness and Rodriguez's slow reclamation than by the lineups around them.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Los Angeles Angels (2.59); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)

Cleveland Guardians

Los Angeles Angels

Joey Cantillo, Cleveland Guardians

Grayson Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers, 10:10a

Summary

Freddy Peralta's rough patch and Detroit's mediocre lineup temper what should be a good pitching duel, but Troy Melton's stuff makes this worth a look if you like watching a rookie arm figure things out. Melton, who missed spring training on the IL with elbow inflammation before returning to post a tidy 1.60 ERA, brings the game's best arm — 96.2 mph heat, a quick pace, and the highest pNERD score on the board at 7.28, buoyed by his age-25 novelty and a strong xFIP-. That said, he's posted a 5.49 FIP over his last two appearances while allowing a 45.9% hard-hit rate, so the shine has come off recently. Peralta, freshly acquired by Tampa at the deadline, isn't sharp either — a rough walk rate and similarly ugly recent FIP drag his pNERD down to 4.31, though a positive luck score suggests better days may be ahead. Team-wise, neither club impresses: the Rays' offense gets dinged for a weak barrel rate despite solid raw batting runs, while Detroit's shaky baserunning and fielding cancel out modest thump. Combined tNERD sits below average, and the 9.94 gNERD lands just under the historical middle and roughly today's average — a passable Wednesday matinee, not a must-watch.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Detroit Tigers (2.74); radio, Detroit Tigers (2.64)

Tampa Bay Rays

Detroit Tigers

Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

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Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals, 3:45p

Summary

This is a battle between two teams playing out the string, but Matt Waldron's knuckleball debut for Washington gives it a genuine reason to tune in. Waldron, freshly acquired and making his first start in a Nationals uniform, throws the game's only true junk pitch — a knuckleball, the newly acquired right-hander — and his pNERD of 4.39 is buoyed almost entirely by that novelty and some brutal (79-point) bad luck that projects better days ahead. Across the mound, Tanner Gordon will make his seventh start of the season after taking the loss in his last outing against Cleveland, allowing five runs on nine hits in 5 1/3 innings, still hunting his first win. The Rockies (51-81) snapped a seven-game skid Tuesday when Hunter Goodman announced his return from the injured list with a home run to help beat the Nationals 3-1, but Colorado's tNERD (0.81) remains one of the league's weakest, dragged down by poor batting and barrel rates. Washington's tNERD (8.96) is comfortably above average, powered by strong baserunning and a young, cheap roster. Overall gNERD of 9.76 sits a shade below the historical median — watchable mostly for Waldron's knuckleball curiosity, not much else.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Washington Nationals (2.00); radio, Washington Nationals (2.20)

Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals

Tanner Gordon, Colorado Rockies

Matt Waldron, Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals, 4:45p

Summary

Both teams are on the outer edges of contention rather than in the thick of it, but that only sharpens the fun of watching a team on a four-game losing streak try to avoid free fall while a wild-card hopeful looks to keep pace. This is a mid-pack matchup that's more about desperation than star power, with both pitchers scuffling and neither offense humming. The Cardinals sit 15.5 games out of the division but only 2.5 out of the last wild card spot, and a four-game skid, punctuated by a 13-1 blowout loss the night before, has St. Louis feeling the heat. Baltimore, playing spoiler while clinging to slim postseason hopes, rides Pete Alonso's hot bat (a four-hit, four-RBI night in the series opener) into this one. Bradish and McGreevy are both walking-and-contact-prone arms with pedestrian strikeout rates, though McGreevy's age (25) and passable xFIP nudge his pNERD slightly above Bradish's. Neither team's tNERD (5.93 and 6.01) stands out much against today's slate average of 5.62. With a gNERD of 9.10, sitting below today's 10.83 average and the historical 50th percentile, this game is more background noise than must-watch, best suited for fans of either fanbase or wild-card scoreboard-watching.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Baltimore Orioles (2.82); radio, St. Louis Cardinals (2.15)

Baltimore Orioles

St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals

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Houston Astros @ New York Yankees, 4:05p

Summary

A middling matchup on paper, livened up by a scuffling Astros team trying to hold onto a division lead and a Yankees club that's quietly caught fire. New York has won six of its last eight games and continues to put pressure on the top of the AL East race, while Houston has been in a funk—clinging to a half-game lead in the AL West, the Astros have not won more than two games in a row in the last three weeks and have dropped six of their last nine games. That said, Houston has history on its side at Yankee Stadium: they've won four of the last five meetings there, three by two or more runs. Peter Lambert takes the ball off his worst outing of the season, where he gave up nine earned runs in a blowout loss to the Angels, though his broader stretch was solid—over his previous eight outings, he posted a 2.44 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 49 punchouts and only 15 free passes. The Yankees' opponent is TBD, an unknown that drags the pitching side down given the total lack of data. tNERD-wise, New York's 7.67 mark—boosted by strong barrel-rate suppression and baserunning—outclasses Houston's modest 2.82, giving this game a middle-of-the-pack 9.09 gNERD, below today's 10.83 average.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Houston Astros (2.17); radio, New York Yankees (2.22)

Houston Astros

New York Yankees

Peter Lambert, Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays, 4:07p

Summary

A middling gNERD game brightened almost entirely by one live arm on the mound. Spencer Miles brings real stuff to Rogers Centre — his 96.2 mph average velocity and 78 xFIP- support the highest pNERD score of the day at 8.17, the kind of youthful power arm (he's only 25) worth tuning in for regardless of the scoreboard. Opposite him, Randy Dobnak is the stylistic inverse: a soft-tossing sinkerballer averaging under 92 mph with minimal strikeout stuff, and his 3.37 pNERD reflects that lack of dominance. The Blue Jays are quietly having a disappointing follow-up to their pennant run — they have suffered some injuries, but most of their decline has come from a lackluster offense, ranking second-from-last in home runs and dead last in runs scored. Kazuma Okamoto's power has been a bright spot, while Bobby Witt Jr. remains a game-changer for Kansas City's otherwise unremarkable lineup. Toronto's excellent glovework (a strong fielding z-score) offsets Kansas City's brutal bullpen, one of the worst in the league. Overall, an average-to-below-average matchup on paper, salvaged by watching Miles work.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Toronto Blue Jays (3.10); radio, Toronto Blue Jays (2.39)

Kansas City Royals

Toronto Blue Jays

Randy Dobnak, Kansas City Royals

Spencer Miles, Toronto Blue Jays

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Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants, 12:45p

Summary

Two sub-.500 clubs playing out the string, but there's a decent pitching matchup buried in the standings-irrelevance. The Giants have taken the first two games of this series, most recently a 3-1 win, and both San Francisco (53-78) and Cincinnati (62-70) are well outside playoff contention, so don't expect much beyond professional pride on the line. Landen Roupp is the more interesting arm here, sitting at a 97 xFIP- with a quick pace and solid strikeout numbers, giving him a 5.07 pNERD that's right around the day's average. Nick Lodolo, meanwhile, is scuffling — his xFIP- of 114 signals below-average performance, and his 1.98 pNERD ranks toward the bottom of today's slate. Neither offense is doing much of anything: the Reds' batting runs are deep in the red and the Giants aren't much better, though Cincinnati's above-average barrel rate offers a sliver of thump. San Francisco's tNERD gets a boost mostly from broadcast ratings and some positive luck, not from actual production. At a combined gNERD of 7.88 — below both the historical and today's averages — this is a fringe watch at best, useful mainly if you like efficient, low-scoring Oracle Park baseball.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, San Francisco Giants (3.20); radio, San Francisco Giants (3.49)

Cincinnati Reds

San Francisco Giants

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

Landen Roupp, San Francisco Giants

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Minnesota Twins @ Athletics, 6:05p

Summary

Below-average watchability, but two rebuilding teams and a Tommy John comeback story give this one a sliver of appeal beyond the numbers. The gNERD of 7.45 sits well below the historic median (10.8) and even under today's slate average of roughly 10.8, so don't drop your other viewing plans for this one. The teams themselves are forgettable: Minnesota's 2.81 tNERD and Oakland's 1.77 combine for one of the weaker offensive/defensive pairings you'll find, with both clubs dragged down by poor fielding and baserunning; the Athletics sit at 52-81 overall while Minnesota is 64-69, and the two clubs are meeting for the sixth time this season, with the Twins ahead 3-2 in the series. The pitching is more interesting than the standings suggest. Connor Prielipp, a 25-year-old lefty who returned from Tommy John surgery to make his MLB debut this year, posts a 7.13 pNERD thanks largely to his age, mid-90s velocity, and a hefty positive luck score suggesting his rough surface numbers should actually improve. J.T. Ginn, meanwhile, is basically league-average filler here (3.17 pNERD) despite Oakland treating him as their de facto ace; his last outing was rocky, allowing six hits and three runs over five innings, and he hasn't looked dominant since July 18. Watch only if you're already invested in the Prielipp redemption arc.

(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)

Recommended broadcasts: TV, Minnesota Twins (2.30); radio, Minnesota Twins (2.06)

Minnesota Twins

Athletics

Connor Prielipp, Minnesota Twins

J.T. Ginn, Athletics

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