MLB: What to watch on October 12, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.1 | 2:00p | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8.9 | Milwaukee Brewers | 10.0 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 8.6 | Logan Henderson | 8.6 |
| 12.9 | 5:00p | Cleveland Guardians | 7.2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.5 | Foster Griffin | 5.8 | Drew Rasmussen | 8.3 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers, 2:00p
Summary
This is about as good as it gets: an NLCS Game 2 pitting two of the best arms in the sport, with the Dodgers' season on the brink. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, fresh off a dominant NLDS Game 3 in Atlanta where he held Atlanta to four hits and a run over seven innings with a playoff-career-high 10 strikeouts and only one walk, takes the ball trying to even the series after the Brewers stole Game 1 with a bit of small-ball in the fifth. He's been nearly unhittable away from Dodger Stadium in October — another dominant road outing for Yamamoto, whose last five playoff outings away from Dodger Stadium have produced four runs on 17 hits and four walks with 32 strikeouts over 33 2/3 innings. Across the mound is Brewers rookie Logan Henderson, who matches Yamamoto's elite 78 xFIP- and just delivered 4 Ks while permitting 2 hits and 1 ER in 5.0 IP against San Diego in the NLDS. Both pitchers carry pNERD scores near 8.6, and the tNERD marks (Dodgers 8.85, Brewers 10.03) reflect two deep, athletic rosters. The 18.05 gNERD sits at the top of today's slate and well above the historical norm — this is appointment viewing.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Milwaukee Brewers (2.66); radio, Milwaukee Brewers (2.56)
Los Angeles Dodgers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 80.1 | 8.6% | -5.8 | 6.5 | 73.2 | $413.5M | 30.0 | 23.0 | 2.45 | 2.51 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.96 | 0.96 | -0.95 | 0.25 | 1.43 | 2.41 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.12 | 0.26 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.96 | 0.96 | -0.95 | 0.25 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 4.00 | 8.85 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 55.2 | 7.3% | 7.6 | 7.9 | 66.0 | $139.3M | 27.7 | -28.0 | 2.66 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Z-score | 1.37 | -0.40 | 1.19 | 0.30 | 1.18 | -0.73 | -1.21 | -1.22 | 0.53 | 0.37 | — | — |
| tNERD | 1.37 | -0.40 | 1.19 | 0.30 | 1.18 | 0.73 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 4.00 | 10.03 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 78 | 12.3% | 66.0% | 95.9 mph | 27 | 19.4s | -18 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.43 | 0.83 | 0.96 | 0.77 | -0.38 | 0.24 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.86 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.77 | 0.38 | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.58 |
Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 78 | 12.4% | 68.3% | 93.2 mph | 24 | 20.5s | -18 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.43 | 0.88 | 1.90 | -0.43 | -1.16 | 1.14 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.86 | 0.44 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 1.16 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.64 |
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 5:00p
Summary
ALCS Game 1 arrives with the Rays favored to roll, but the Guardians have already proven they don't care much for predictions. Cleveland stormed back from an 0-2 deficit against the White Sox, becoming the first team since the 2017 Yankees to overcome that hole in a best-of-five series, while Tampa Bay cruised to a sweep and now hosts the pennant round at Tropicana Field. The Rays dominated the regular-season series against the Guardians, finishing 5-1 in 2026, and oddsmakers clearly remember that, installing Tampa Bay as a heavy home favorite.
On the mound, Drew Rasmussen is the headliner — his 8.28 pNERD (xFIP- of 78, mid-90s velocity, elite strike rate) sits well above the daily average, and he's been stingy enough that his negative luck number suggests he could be getting rougher results than deserved. Foster Griffin counters capably but unspectacularly for Cleveland. At a 12.90 gNERD, this game lands a bit below today's slate average but still comfortably above the historical midpoint — not must-see, but a legitimate pitching matchup with real stakes attached.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -23.8 | 5.7% | 5.1 | 11.4 | 54.4 | $88.9M | 27.6 | 8.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | -1.30 | -1.35 | 0.36 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.23 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 25.4 | 5.7% | 4.7 | 6.8 | 20.8 | $106.9M | 29.1 | 4.0 | 2.27 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.65 | -2.07 | 0.73 | 0.26 | -0.35 | -1.10 | 0.07 | 0.18 | -0.23 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.65 | -2.07 | 0.73 | 0.26 | -0.35 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
Foster Griffin, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 90 | 9.9% | 66.0% | 91.5 mph | 30 | 18.5s | -5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.71 | -0.28 | 0.94 | -1.19 | 0.40 | -0.50 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 1.42 | -0.14 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.79 |
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 78 | 11.3% | 66.8% | 95.6 mph | 30 | 18.7s | -14 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.43 | 0.37 | 1.26 | 0.63 | 0.40 | -0.34 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.86 | 0.18 | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.28 |
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