MLB: What to watch on October 13, 2026
Here are today's MLB games, ordered by watchability, based on how interesting the teams and starting pitchers look. Higher is better. For more information, read this post.
| Score | Time (PT) | Visitors | Score | Home | Score | Starter (V) | Score | Starter (H) | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9 | 5:00p | Cleveland Guardians | 7.2 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.5 | Parker Messick | 8.3 | Freddy Peralta | 3.8 |
Notes:
- Pitcher 'no data': Pitchers only have a pNERD score once they've started at least one game and have at least 20 innings pitched. I also show 'no data' when I can't correctly link a starting pitcher with their stats.
- Generated by the mlb-watchability project on GitHub.
Detail
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays, 5:00p
Summary
This is ALCS Game 2, with Cleveland leading the series 1-0 after a comeback win behind homers from Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey. Good context to write with.
This is ALCS Game 2, and Cleveland arrives with a 1-0 series lead after a wild Game 1 comeback — that storyline alone makes it must-watch, even before you get to the pitching matchup. Nathaniel Lowe delivered a go-ahead hit as the Guardians stormed back to take the lead in Game 1, with rookie Chase DeLauter homering and extending his hitting streak to five postseason games. Parker Messick, Cleveland's 25-year-old lefty, brings the better underlying profile here — his sparkling xFIP- and quick pace drive a strong 8.32 pNERD, well above the field's average today. Freddy Peralta counters with middling peripherals (a below-average strike rate drags his 3.81 pNERD down), though he's shown plenty of swing-and-miss stuff. Tampa Bay's lineup features Junior Caminero, who's likely to finish second in AL MVP voting, giving the Rays thump even with middling team NERD. Both clubs share an identically ugly barrel-rate number, dragging their tNERD scores down somewhat, but Cleveland's deeper bullpen and lower payroll push its team score higher. At 11.93, the gNERD sits a bit above the historical average — not a blockbuster number, but with a series lead, a surging rookie, and an AL MVP contender on the other side, the stakes do plenty of the heavy lifting.
(A model from Anthropic generated the above text using instructions, the NERD scores, and these sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.)
Recommended broadcasts: TV, Tampa Bay Rays (2.27); radio, Cleveland Guardians (3.14)
Cleveland Guardians
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | -23.8 | 5.7% | 5.1 | 11.3 | 54.4 | $88.9M | 27.6 | 8.0 | 2.16 | 3.14 | — | — |
| Z-score | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | -1.30 | -1.35 | 0.36 | -0.44 | 1.60 | — | — |
| tNERD | -0.53 | -2.07 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.30 | 1.35 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 4.00 | 7.22 |
Tampa Bay Rays
| Batting | Barrel% | BaseR | Fielding | Bullpen | Payroll | Age | Luck | TV | Radio | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 25.4 | 5.7% | 4.7 | 7.0 | 20.8 | $106.9M | 29.1 | 4.0 | 2.27 | 2.10 | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.65 | -2.07 | 0.72 | 0.27 | -0.35 | -1.10 | 0.07 | 0.18 | -0.23 | -0.61 | — | — |
| tNERD | 0.65 | -2.07 | 0.72 | 0.27 | -0.35 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 4.51 |
Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 81 | 11.1% | 64.1% | 94.0 mph | 25 | 16.9s | -19 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | -1.25 | 0.27 | 0.15 | -0.08 | -0.90 | -1.82 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | 2.50 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 8.32 |
Freddy Peralta, Tampa Bay Rays
| xFIP- | SwStr% | Strike% | Velocity | Age | Pace | Luck | KN% | C | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stat | 104 | 11.1% | 61.3% | 94.4 mph | 30 | 18.1s | 3 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Z-score | 0.13 | 0.27 | -1.05 | 0.10 | 0.40 | -0.83 | — | — | — | — |
| pNERD | -0.27 | 0.14 | -0.53 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 3.80 | 3.81 |
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MLB: What to watch on October 12, 2026